TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159443
Played Sep 19Finished
Dawid Kotwica
Home
1.66
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911811511––
Adrian Eliasz
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeDawid Kotwica to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
119911811511––
H2H Dawid Kotwica 28–37 Adrian Eliasz Dawid Kotwica has won 28 of their 65 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Eliasz beat Kotwica 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Kotwica
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-37 in 65
Eliasz
Correct
gap of 9 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotwica 1287 vs Eliasz 1237
Kotwica
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotwica 60% vs Eliasz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotwica 80% vs Eliasz 40%
Kotwica
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotwica +3 · Eliasz -2
Kotwica
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Kotwica) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotwica 1.66 / Eliasz 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kotwica)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13159443
Kotwica1.66
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 64 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it83% 29 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it75% 49 of 65
Eliasz2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog32% won 69 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back19% 24 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotwica6wins
AwayEliasz4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKotwica leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotwica80%4 of 5
AwayEliasz60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotwica5Eliasz5n = 10split evenly
S2Kotwica7Eliasz3n = 10Kotwica took 7 of 10
S3Kotwica4Eliasz6n = 10Eliasz took 6 of 10
S4Kotwica6Eliasz1n = 7Kotwica took 6 of 7
S5Kotwica1Eliasz2n = 3Eliasz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotwicaEliaszK − EBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.638.5+2.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotwicaEliaszBasisWin rate · lifetime646 / 1568 vs 338 / 90841.2%37.2%646 / 1568 vs 338 / 908Avg sets wonper match1.71.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotwicaKotwica 1.66/Eliasz 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55%
Kotwica · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Eliasz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 16:55D. Kotwica51911111192A. Eliasz48116137113
LJul 30 · 23:45D. Kotwica49129511122A. Eliasz531011117143
WJun 14 · 17:25D. Kotwica5011119193A. Eliasz415811171
WMay 31 · 18:35D. Kotwica3411111113A. Eliasz34981161
WMay 24 · 06:35D. Kotwica4181111113A. Eliasz30117571
LApr 18 · 23:50D. Kotwica34981161A. Eliasz4011117113
WApr 18 · 21:30D. Kotwica341111123A. Eliasz2596100
WApr 16 · 15:50D. Kotwica48511912113A. Eliasz45115111082
WApr 2 · 23:20D. Kotwica381115123A. Eliasz32913100
LApr 2 · 21:00D. Kotwica2713950A. Eliasz371511113
D. Kotwica10
WSep 19 · 21:55D. Kotwica2.0511119113P. Staniszewski1.68791191WSep 19 · 20:30W. Gluszek1.83118971D. Kotwica1.8381111113WSep 19 · 19:20D. Kotwica2.151111113A. Pilch1.639860WSep 19 · 18:10P. Krukar1.587790D. Kotwica2.251111113LSep 19 · 16:55A. Eliasz1.87116137113D. Kotwica1.83911111192LSep 19 · 15:25A. Mugowski1.581161114123D. Kotwica2.20811816102WSep 16 · 24:35M. Kowalczyk1.9010111191D. Kotwica1.8012137113WSep 15 · 22:55K. Golaszewski2.106950D. Kotwica1.601111113WSep 15 · 22:15J. Rolak1.8591070D. Kotwica1.751112113WSep 15 · 21:30P. Ostachowski5.209890D. Kotwica1.101111113
A. Eliasz10
WSep 19 · 22:15W. Gluszek1.90125751A. Eliasz1.80101111113LSep 19 · 20:05A. Eliasz—11711162A. Pilch—311311113LSep 19 · 18:30A. Mugowski1.5761111113A. Eliasz2.20114891WSep 19 · 17:45W. Gluszek1.786640A. Eliasz1.931111113WSep 19 · 16:55A. Eliasz1.87116137113D. Kotwica1.83911111192WSep 19 · 15:50A. Eliasz2.85111111113P. Krukar1.36136871LSep 19 · 24:10A. Eliasz2.35121191092K. Klocek1.501061112113LSep 18 · 23:20A. Eliasz2.0011105101M. Skorski1.7191211123WSep 18 · 21:55A. Eliasz—1115311113A. Pilch—413111392LSep 18 · 21:30A. Eliasz2.55117771P. Maruszak1.4571111113
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