TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13158414
Played Sep 19Finished
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611114118119––
Adrian Eliasz
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:43 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
611114118119––
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 30–26 Adrian Eliasz Adrian Eliasz has won 26 of their 56 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:43What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Mugowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-26 in 56
Mugowski
Correct
gap of 4 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1411 vs Eliasz 1256
Mugowski
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 60% vs Eliasz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 50% vs Eliasz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski -1 · Eliasz +3
Eliasz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Mugowski) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Eliasz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 1.57 / Eliasz 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Mugowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13158414
Mugowski1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 92 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it79% 72 of 91
Eliasz2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog32% won 69 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back19% 24 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMugowski5wins
AwayEliasz5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowski60%3 of 5
AwayEliasz60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski5Eliasz5n = 10split evenly
S2Mugowski4Eliasz6n = 10Eliasz took 6 of 10
S3Mugowski3Eliasz7n = 10Eliasz took 7 of 10
S4Mugowski6Eliasz2n = 8Mugowski took 6 of 8
S5Mugowski2Eliasz2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMugowskiEliaszM − EBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.042.1−0.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiEliaszBasisWin rate · lifetime914 / 1993 vs 338 / 90645.9%37.3%914 / 1993 vs 338 / 906Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiMugowski 1.57/Eliasz 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 31 · 24:35A. Mugowski50611111392A. Eliasz531113711113
WJul 19 · 11:50A. Mugowski4312119113A. Eliasz321061151
WJul 19 · 05:40A. Mugowski3911116113A. Eliasz30861151
LJul 19 · 03:25A. Mugowski2711970A. Eliasz351311113
LJun 30 · 20:05A. Mugowski4511591192A. Eliasz49811118113
WMay 24 · 11:05A. Mugowski521091111113A. Eliasz4712118882
WMay 24 · 08:20A. Mugowski4711149133A. Eliasz4171211111
LApr 18 · 19:45A. Mugowski34912130A. Eliasz401114153
WApr 11 · 11:00A. Mugowski531011119123A. Eliasz51129911102
LApr 2 · 16:55A. Mugowski30127381A. Eliasz43101111113
A. Mugowski10
LSep 19 · 17:20A. Mugowski—991141A. Pilch—11117113WSep 19 · 16:15W. Gluszek2.256450A. Mugowski1.571111113WSep 19 · 15:25A. Mugowski1.581161114123D. Kotwica2.20811816102LSep 18 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.301111113A. Mugowski3.406860WSep 17 · 22:55K. Rudomina1.61109111182A. Mugowski2.20121163113LSep 17 · 22:10M. Lukaszewski1.80115911113A. Mugowski1.9181111672LSep 17 · 21:25M. Kolek1.4481111113A. Mugowski2.63116751WSep 17 · 20:05A. Mugowski2.101111133K. Rudomina1.6789110LSep 17 · 18:30M. Rutkowski1.201111113A. Mugowski4.333580WSep 17 · 17:40M. Lukaszewski2.00121190A. Mugowski1.731413113
A. Eliasz10
WSep 19 · 17:45W. Gluszek1.786640A. Eliasz1.931111113WSep 19 · 16:55A. Eliasz1.87116137113D. Kotwica1.83911111192WSep 19 · 15:50A. Eliasz2.85111111113P. Krukar1.36136871LSep 19 · 24:10A. Eliasz2.35121191092K. Klocek1.501061112113LSep 18 · 23:20A. Eliasz2.0011105101M. Skorski1.7191211123WSep 18 · 21:55A. Eliasz—1115311113A. Pilch—413111392LSep 18 · 21:30A. Eliasz2.55117771P. Maruszak1.4571111113LSep 13 · 13:55M. Sinicki1.6011811113A. Eliasz2.10811991WSep 13 · 13:05B. Wisniewski1.807111261A. Eliasz1.9111814113WSep 13 · 12:15A. Eliasz1.90111179113M. Piecowski1.8078111192
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