TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13153533
Played Sep 19Finished
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Home
1.58
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11861111814161210
Dawid Kotwica
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:34 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeDawid Kotwica to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
107 points played in total.
Set by set
11861111814161210
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 51–45 Dawid Kotwica Dawid Kotwica has won 45 of their 96 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:34What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (58%)
Mugowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-45 in 96
Mugowski
Correct
gap of 6 in 96, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1423 vs Kotwica 1278
Mugowski
Correct
both rated, 145 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 40% vs Kotwica 100%
Kotwica
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 50% vs Kotwica 70%
Kotwica
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski -1 · Kotwica +7
Kotwica
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Mugowski) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotwica form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 1.58 / Kotwica 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Mugowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13153533
Mugowski1.58
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 92 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it79% 72 of 91
Kotwica2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 16)
Won last 7
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 137 of 387
Down 0–1, comes back19% 42 of 224
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMugowski7wins
AwayKotwica3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMugowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowski100%6 of 6
AwayKotwica75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski6Kotwica4n = 10Mugowski took 6 of 10
S2Mugowski5Kotwica5n = 10split evenly
S3Mugowski4Kotwica6n = 10Kotwica took 6 of 10
S4Mugowski3Kotwica3n = 6split evenly
S5Mugowski4Kotwica0n = 4Mugowski took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMugowskiKotwicaM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.539.2+0.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiKotwicaBasisWin rate · lifetime914 / 1992 vs 643 / 156445.9%41.1%914 / 1992 vs 643 / 1564Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiMugowski 1.58/Kotwica 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 15:25A. Mugowski541161114123D. Kotwica53811816102
WAug 31 · 24:10A. Mugowski561111914113D. Kotwica4987111672
WJul 30 · 22:55A. Mugowski331111113D. Kotwica249870
LJul 30 · 16:35A. Mugowski196850D. Kotwica331111113
LJun 11 · 24:10A. Mugowski347115111D. Kotwica4111611133
WJun 10 · 21:45A. Mugowski581215911113D. Kotwica53101711692
LJun 10 · 16:55A. Mugowski205960D. Kotwica331111113
WJun 6 · 24:35A. Mugowski341211113D. Kotwica2710980
WJun 5 · 22:10A. Mugowski44641111123D. Kotwica46111195102
WJun 5 · 19:20A. Mugowski4312119113D. Kotwica331041181
A. Mugowski10
LSep 19 · 17:20A. Mugowski—991141A. Pilch—11117113WSep 19 · 16:15W. Gluszek2.256450A. Mugowski1.571111113LSep 18 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.301111113A. Mugowski3.406860WSep 17 · 22:55K. Rudomina1.61109111182A. Mugowski2.20121163113LSep 17 · 22:10M. Lukaszewski1.80115911113A. Mugowski1.9181111672LSep 17 · 21:25M. Kolek1.4481111113A. Mugowski2.63116751WSep 17 · 20:05A. Mugowski2.101111133K. Rudomina1.6789110LSep 17 · 18:30M. Rutkowski1.201111113A. Mugowski4.333580WSep 17 · 17:40M. Lukaszewski2.00121190A. Mugowski1.731413113WSep 17 · 16:55A. Mugowski2.63711117113M. Kolek1.4411991192
D. Kotwica10
WSep 16 · 24:35M. Kowalczyk1.9010111191D. Kotwica1.8012137113WSep 15 · 22:55K. Golaszewski2.106950D. Kotwica1.601111113WSep 15 · 22:15J. Rolak1.8591070D. Kotwica1.751112113WSep 15 · 21:30P. Ostachowski5.209890D. Kotwica1.101111113WSep 15 · 19:40D. Kotwica2.1611114113D. Szlubowski1.57881191WSep 15 · 18:30D. Kotwica1.917121110113J. Nosiadek1.80111081292WSep 15 · 17:20D. Kotwica1.68138118113K. Golaszewski2.05111131102LSep 15 · 16:15P. Ostachowski5.201111113D. Kotwica1.108790LSep 15 · 15:25D. Kotwica1.90119191J. Rolak1.8091111113LSep 14 · 24:10D. Kotwica2.30146771R. Stapor1.52121111113
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