TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134900
Played Sep 15Finished
Piotr Ostachowski
Home
5.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811911––––
Dawid Kotwica
Away
1.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched — 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeDawid Kotwica to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
911811911––––
H2H Piotr Ostachowski 1–1 Dawid Kotwica Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Ostachowski beat Kotwica 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (83%)
Kotwica
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ostachowski 854 vs Kotwica 1239
Kotwica
Correct
both rated, 386 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ostachowski 40% vs Kotwica 60%
Kotwica
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ostachowski 20% vs Kotwica 40%
Kotwica
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ostachowski -3 · Kotwica +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Kotwica) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotwica form (60%) is below what odds imply (91%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOstachowski 5.20 / Kotwica 1.10
Signal prob.18% / 83%
Edge (Kotwica)-0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13134900
Ostachowski5.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest22%takes the first set · 2 of 9
As underdog0% won 0 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Kotwica1.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 63 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it81% 25 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it74% 46 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeOstachowski1wins
AwayKotwica1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricOstachowskiKotwicaO − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match29.528.5+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOstachowskiKotwicaBasisWin rate · lifetime2 / 33 vs 641 / 15616.1%41.1%2 / 33 vs 641 / 1561Avg sets wonper match0.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match27.635.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotwicaOstachowski 5.20/Kotwica 1.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.5%
Kotwica · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kotwica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 15 · 21:30P. Ostachowski269890D. Kotwica331111113
WSep 15 · 16:15P. Ostachowski331111113D. Kotwica248790
P. Ostachowski10
LSep 15 · 21:55P. Ostachowski5.1016660M. Kowalczyk1.111811113LSep 15 · 20:30P. Ostachowski4.550J. Rolak1.143LSep 15 · 18:55P. Ostachowski6.20135961D. Szlubowski1.06111111113LSep 15 · 17:45P. Ostachowski4.804811101J. Nosiadek1.1211116123WSep 15 · 16:15P. Ostachowski5.201111113D. Kotwica1.108790WSep 15 · 15:00P. Ostachowski4.4571111113K. Golaszewski1.14119981LSep 15 · 24:10M. Lukaszewski1.321112113P. Ostachowski3.0551080LSep 14 · 23:45P. Ostachowski2.806260A. Myszewski1.371111113LSep 14 · 22:55P. Ostachowski2.356911101K. Golaszewski1.5311118123LSep 14 · 21:05P. Ostachowski3.50612771M. Trela1.24111011113
D. Kotwica10
WSep 15 · 22:15J. Rolak1.8591070D. Kotwica1.751112113WSep 15 · 19:40D. Kotwica2.1611114113D. Szlubowski1.57881191WSep 15 · 18:30D. Kotwica1.917121110113J. Nosiadek1.80111081292WSep 15 · 17:20D. Kotwica1.68138118113K. Golaszewski2.05111131102LSep 15 · 16:15P. Ostachowski5.201111113D. Kotwica1.108790LSep 15 · 15:25D. Kotwica1.90119191J. Rolak1.8091111113LSep 14 · 24:10D. Kotwica2.30146771R. Stapor1.52121111113LSep 13 · 23:20D. Kotwica1.5511812882K. Marchlewski2.207111011113LSep 13 · 21:55D. Kotwica2.5591111292A. Linek1.42118911113WSep 13 · 21:30D. Kotwica1.80118119113K. Rudomina1.9181191182
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