TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129279
Played Sep 15Finished
Dawid Kotwica
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911111911––
Jaroslaw Rolak
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslaw Rolak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
119911111911––
H2H Dawid Kotwica 9–7 Jaroslaw Rolak Jaroslaw Rolak has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:20What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rolak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Kotwica
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotwica 1236 vs Rolak 1259
Rolak
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotwica 20% vs Rolak 40%
Rolak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotwica 20% vs Rolak 40%
Rolak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotwica -3 · Rolak +1
Kotwica
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rolak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rolak form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotwica 1.90 / Rolak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rolak)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13129279
Kotwica1.90
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 142 of 402
Down 0–1, comes back18% 43 of 236
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 146
Rolak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 133 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it86% 63 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it70% 106 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotwica6wins
AwayRolak4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKotwica leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotwica100%6 of 6
AwayRolak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotwica6Rolak4n = 10Kotwica took 6 of 10
S2Kotwica4Rolak6n = 10Rolak took 6 of 10
S3Kotwica6Rolak4n = 10Kotwica took 6 of 10
S4Kotwica4Rolak4n = 8split evenly
S5Kotwica2Rolak1n = 3Kotwica took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotwicaRolakK − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.340.1−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotwicaRolakBasisWin rate · lifetime637 / 1555 vs 652 / 143241%45.5%637 / 1555 vs 652 / 1432Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RolakKotwica 1.90/Rolak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rolak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rolak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 4 · 16:55D. Kotwica28341471J. Rolak45111112113
LJul 31 · 24:10D. Kotwica4641114892J. Rolak521171211113
WJul 30 · 19:20D. Kotwica48111016113J. Rolak428121481
LMay 26 · 16:25D. Kotwica32781161J. Rolak3611113113
WMay 19 · 16:25D. Kotwica45144115113J. Rolak51121191182
WApr 29 · 24:45D. Kotwica48117811113J. Rolak4381111492
WApr 28 · 22:20D. Kotwica4211117133J. Rolak355811111
LApr 28 · 16:25D. Kotwica164750J. Rolak331111113
WMar 1 · 02:05D. Kotwica351111133J. Rolak2678110
WFeb 28 · 23:40D. Kotwica4311128123J. Rolak3871011101
D. Kotwica10
LSep 15 · 16:15P. Ostachowski5.201111113D. Kotwica1.108790LSep 14 · 24:10D. Kotwica2.30146771R. Stapor1.52121111113LSep 13 · 23:20D. Kotwica1.5511812882K. Marchlewski2.207111011113LSep 13 · 21:55D. Kotwica2.5591111292A. Linek1.42118911113WSep 13 · 21:30D. Kotwica1.80118119113K. Rudomina1.9181191182LSep 13 · 20:30K. Marchlewski2.2911811143D. Kotwica1.517116121WSep 13 · 19:20D. Kotwica2.4591111113R. Stapor1.47117481LSep 13 · 18:10A. Wos1.231111113D. Kotwica3.502850LSep 13 · 16:55K. Rudomina1.42128711113D. Kotwica2.50101111692LSep 13 · 15:25J. Glanowski1.4191111113D. Kotwica2.55116581
J. Rolak10
WSep 12 · 13:55J. Rolak1.741111123K. Marchlewski1.9594100LSep 12 · 12:40J. Rolak2.05711115102J. Przewlocki1.68118911123WSep 12 · 11:25J. Rolak2.7511811163P. Maruszak1.404117141LSep 12 · 10:10I. Dabrowski1.50101111153J. Rolak2.401288131LSep 12 · 09:25J. Rolak3.15913151J. Glanowski1.28111111113WSep 12 · 08:35J. Przewlocki1.7212129482J. Rolak2.0010101111113LSep 12 · 07:20J. Rolak1.9112811111B. Wisniewski1.7314115133LSep 12 · 06:05J. Glanowski1.301111113J. Rolak3.005690WSep 12 · 04:55I. Dabrowski1.3791011121J. Rolak2.7011127143LSep 12 · 03:25D. Poloszczanski1.86581111123J. Rolak1.83111178102
Upcoming Matches
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