TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125264
Played Sep 14Finished
Dawid Kotwica
Home
2.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1412611711711––
Rafal Stapor
Away
1.52
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched — 65.4% is still 65.4%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
65.4%
65.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
1412611711711––
H2H Dawid Kotwica 5–4 Rafal Stapor Rafal Stapor has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Kotwica beat Stapor 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (60%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotwica 1255 vs Stapor 1447
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 191 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotwica 40% vs Stapor 60%
Stapor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotwica 30% vs Stapor 70%
Stapor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotwica -1 · Stapor +3
Stapor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotwica 2.30 / Stapor 1.52
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Stapor)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13125264
Kotwica2.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog36% won 141 of 396
Down 0–1, comes back18% 42 of 232
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 145
Stapor1.52
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite63% won 391 of 620
Up 2–0, closes it96% 195 of 204
Up 1–0, closes it81% 298 of 367
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKotwica5wins
AwayStapor4wins
Kotwica leads 5–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotwica80%4 of 5
AwayStapor75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotwica5Stapor4n = 9Kotwica took 5 of 9
S2Kotwica5Stapor4n = 9Kotwica took 5 of 9
S3Kotwica5Stapor4n = 9Kotwica took 5 of 9
S4Kotwica2Stapor2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricKotwicaStaporK − SBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match31.031.00.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotwicaStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime637 / 1553 vs 657 / 116141%56.6%637 / 1553 vs 657 / 1161Avg sets wonper match1.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporKotwica 2.30/Stapor 1.52
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.6%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 13 · 19:20D. Kotwica4291111113R. Stapor30117481
LSep 12 · 22:55D. Kotwica179620R. Stapor331111113
LSep 12 · 18:30D. Kotwica26571131R. Stapor4211119113
LAug 30 · 21:55D. Kotwica34118871R. Stapor4291111113
WAug 29 · 23:20D. Kotwica4011117113R. Stapor37981191
LAug 29 · 20:30D. Kotwica206770R. Stapor331111113
WAug 19 · 14:40D. Kotwica331111113R. Stapor152670
WMar 16 · 14:25D. Kotwica331111113R. Stapor238690
WMar 1 · 13:15D. Kotwica341111123R. Stapor2468100
D. Kotwica10
LSep 13 · 23:20D. Kotwica1.5511812882K. Marchlewski2.207111011113LSep 13 · 21:55D. Kotwica2.5591111292A. Linek1.42118911113WSep 13 · 21:30D. Kotwica1.80118119113K. Rudomina1.9181191182LSep 13 · 20:30K. Marchlewski2.2911811143D. Kotwica1.517116121WSep 13 · 19:20D. Kotwica2.4591111113R. Stapor1.47117481LSep 13 · 18:10A. Wos1.231111113D. Kotwica3.502850LSep 13 · 16:55K. Rudomina1.42128711113D. Kotwica2.50101111692LSep 13 · 15:25J. Glanowski1.4191111113D. Kotwica2.55116581LSep 13 · 24:10A. Wos1.271111113D. Kotwica3.206580WSep 12 · 23:45D. Kotwica1.71391111113D. Poloszczanski2.0011119892
R. Stapor10
LSep 13 · 23:45R. Stapor1.9048111162A. Linek1.75111159113WSep 13 · 22:55R. Stapor1.9711311113K. Rudomina1.69611761WSep 13 · 21:05R. Stapor1.311111113K. Marchlewski2.954880WSep 13 · 20:05K. Rudomina1.74741171R. Stapor1.9011116113LSep 13 · 19:20D. Kotwica2.4591111113R. Stapor1.47117481LSep 13 · 17:20J. Glanowski1.7511129113R. Stapor1.909101121LSep 13 · 16:35A. Wos1.45891111113R. Stapor2.5511119582WSep 13 · 15:00K. Marchlewski3.107850R. Stapor1.291111113WSep 13 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.8061116572R. Stapor1.341191411113WSep 12 · 22:55D. Kotwica2.359620R. Stapor1.481111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.