TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13158433
Played Sep 19Finished
Wojciech Gluszek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611411511––––
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:52 and never touched — 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
48 points played in total.
Set by set
611411511––––
H2H Wojciech Gluszek 52–47 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 47 of their 99 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:52What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mugowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-47 in 99
Gluszek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 99, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gluszek 1170 vs Mugowski 1409
Mugowski
Correct
both rated, 238 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gluszek 40% vs Mugowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gluszek 30% vs Mugowski 50%
Mugowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gluszek +2 · Mugowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Mugowski) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGluszek 2.25 / Mugowski 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Mugowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13158433
Gluszek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 106 of 305
Down 0–1, comes back17% 31 of 178
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 113
Mugowski1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 92 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it79% 72 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGluszek9wins
AwayMugowski1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGluszek leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGluszek100%7 of 7
AwayMugowski33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gluszek7Mugowski3n = 10Gluszek took 7 of 10
S2Gluszek8Mugowski2n = 10Gluszek took 8 of 10
S3Gluszek8Mugowski2n = 10Gluszek took 8 of 10
S4Gluszek4Mugowski3n = 7Gluszek took 4 of 7
S5Gluszek2Mugowski1n = 3Gluszek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGluszekMugowskiG − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.432.0+8.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGluszekMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime837 / 1774 vs 911 / 199847.2%45.6%837 / 1774 vs 911 / 1998Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiGluszek 2.25/Mugowski 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 10 · 15:50W. Gluszek44111111113A. Mugowski34491381
WMay 28 · 17:20W. Gluszek331111113A. Mugowski184770
WMay 27 · 18:10W. Gluszek4413911113A. Mugowski301111351
WMay 26 · 18:55W. Gluszek47121155143A. Mugowski511071111122
WMay 13 · 10:10W. Gluszek45912112113A. Mugowski46111071172
WMay 6 · 19:40W. Gluszek4071111113A. Mugowski30115681
WApr 12 · 20:10W. Gluszek331111113A. Mugowski199280
WMar 31 · 19:40W. Gluszek331111113A. Mugowski155460
LMar 26 · 19:10W. Gluszek471011114112A. Mugowski48123911133
WMar 12 · 17:15W. Gluszek3811511113A. Mugowski29311691
W. Gluszek10
WSep 19 · 15:00W. Gluszek—11811113A. Pilch—911951WSep 17 · 24:10M. Skorski1.8611101271W. Gluszek1.80131210113LSep 16 · 23:45W. Gluszek1.7399130K. Golaszewski1.981111153LSep 16 · 22:55W. Gluszek1.8811670B. Mrugala1.821311113LSep 16 · 21:05W. Gluszek1.9510550M. Trela1.701211113WSep 16 · 20:05B. Mrugala1.9010111191W. Gluszek1.8012139113LSep 16 · 19:20M. Skorski1.8071211113W. Gluszek1.801110781LSep 16 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk1.8831111113W. Gluszek1.82118341LSep 16 · 16:35P. Strus2.25511116113W. Gluszek1.5411541192LSep 16 · 15:00M. Trela1.76311811113W. Gluszek1.9011711552
A. Mugowski10
LSep 19 · 17:20A. Mugowski—991141A. Pilch—11117113WSep 19 · 15:25A. Mugowski1.581161114123D. Kotwica2.20811816102LSep 18 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.301111113A. Mugowski3.406860WSep 17 · 22:55K. Rudomina1.61109111182A. Mugowski2.20121163113LSep 17 · 22:10M. Lukaszewski1.80115911113A. Mugowski1.9181111672LSep 17 · 21:25M. Kolek1.4481111113A. Mugowski2.63116751WSep 17 · 20:05A. Mugowski2.101111133K. Rudomina1.6789110LSep 17 · 18:30M. Rutkowski1.201111113A. Mugowski4.333580WSep 17 · 17:40M. Lukaszewski2.00121190A. Mugowski1.731413113WSep 17 · 16:55A. Mugowski2.63711117113M. Kolek1.4411991192
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