TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140963
Played Sep 16Finished
Wojciech Gluszek
Home
1.88
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113611711––––
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Away
1.82
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:48 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mrugala to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
1113611711––––
H2H Wojciech Gluszek 8–6 Bartlomiej Mrugala Bartlomiej Mrugala has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Gluszek beat Mrugala 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.82 (51%)
Mrugala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Gluszek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gluszek 1169 vs Mrugala 1320
Mrugala
Correct
both rated, 151 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gluszek 20% vs Mrugala 60%
Mrugala
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gluszek 20% vs Mrugala 70%
Mrugala
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gluszek -1 · Mrugala +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mrugala) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gluszek form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGluszek 1.88 / Mrugala 1.82
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mrugala)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13140963
Gluszek1.88
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 107 of 302
Down 0–1, comes back18% 32 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 111
Mrugala1.82
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As favourite58% won 53 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGluszek5wins
AwayMrugala5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGluszek66.7%4 of 6
AwayMrugala75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gluszek6Mrugala4n = 10Gluszek took 6 of 10
S2Gluszek3Mrugala7n = 10Mrugala took 7 of 10
S3Gluszek5Mrugala5n = 10split evenly
S4Gluszek3Mrugala4n = 7Mrugala took 4 of 7
S5Gluszek2Mrugala1n = 3Gluszek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGluszekMrugalaG − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.439.4−1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGluszekMrugalaBasisWin rate · lifetime839 / 1776 vs 306 / 66547.2%46%839 / 1776 vs 306 / 665Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrugalaGluszek 1.88/Mrugala 1.82
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mrugala · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mrugala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 20:05W. Gluszek4512139113B. Mrugala4110111191
LSep 1 · 21:30W. Gluszek173680B. Mrugala331111113
LSep 1 · 17:45W. Gluszek29681141B. Mrugala4111118113
WAug 21 · 21:05W. Gluszek511161111123B. Mrugala49131196102
LAug 21 · 15:00W. Gluszek205690B. Mrugala331111113
LJun 3 · 19:05W. Gluszek391111891B. Mrugala4271311113
WMar 24 · 15:35W. Gluszek4415711113B. Mrugala391311871
WMar 10 · 18:05W. Gluszek331111113B. Mrugala206590
WFeb 26 · 15:35W. Gluszek56169119113B. Mrugala48141131192
LFeb 16 · 18:05W. Gluszek50111210892B. Mrugala484101211113
W. Gluszek10
LSep 16 · 23:45W. Gluszek1.7399130K. Golaszewski1.981111153LSep 16 · 21:05W. Gluszek1.9510550M. Trela1.701211113WSep 16 · 20:05B. Mrugala1.9010111191W. Gluszek1.8012139113LSep 16 · 19:20M. Skorski1.8071211113W. Gluszek1.801110781LSep 16 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk1.8831111113W. Gluszek1.82118341LSep 16 · 16:35P. Strus2.25511116113W. Gluszek1.5411541192LSep 16 · 15:00M. Trela1.76311811113W. Gluszek1.9011711552LSep 12 · 23:20A. Wos1.211113113W. Gluszek3.6061170LSep 12 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski1.80101411113W. Gluszek1.851212991LSep 12 · 22:15W. Gluszek2.50411561R. Stapor1.4211911113
B. Mrugala10
WSep 16 · 22:15M. Trela1.56691191B. Mrugala2.1811117113LSep 16 · 21:30M. Skorski1.8311117123B. Mrugala1.887811101LSep 16 · 20:05B. Mrugala1.9010111191W. Gluszek1.8012139113WSep 16 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.80111165102B. Mrugala1.80881111123WSep 16 · 17:45M. Trela1.8797111482B. Mrugala1.831111812113WSep 16 · 16:55B. Mrugala2.101111113M. Skorski1.656870LSep 16 · 15:50B. Mrugala1.760P. Strus1.903WSep 9 · 24:35P. Ostachowski2.05981191B. Mrugala1.6611115113WSep 8 · 22:55K. Klocek1.51119111192B. Mrugala2.28811413113WSep 8 · 22:15K. Golaszewski2.00111555112B. Mrugala1.678131111133
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