TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140968
Played Sep 16Finished
Mateusz Trela
Home
1.56
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611911117911––
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Away
2.18
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:54 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mrugala to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
611911117911––
H2H Mateusz Trela 3–7 Bartlomiej Mrugala Mateusz Trela has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Mrugala beat Trela 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:54What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.56 (58%)
Trela
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Mrugala
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trela 1315 vs Mrugala 1308
Trela
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trela 40% vs Mrugala 60%
Mrugala
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trela 50% vs Mrugala 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trela +1 · Mrugala -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Trela) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrugala form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (46%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrela 1.56 / Mrugala 2.18
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Trela)-0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13140968
Trela1.56
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As favourite56% won 135 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it93% 51 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it73% 88 of 120
Mrugala2.18
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
As underdog44% won 110 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back22% 28 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTrela3wins
AwayMrugala7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMrugala leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrela60%3 of 5
AwayMrugala100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trela5Mrugala5n = 10split evenly
S2Trela3Mrugala7n = 10Mrugala took 7 of 10
S3Trela4Mrugala6n = 10Mrugala took 6 of 10
S4Trela4Mrugala3n = 7Trela took 4 of 7
S5Trela1Mrugala3n = 4Mrugala took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTrelaMrugalaT − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.540.3−0.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrelaMrugalaBasisWin rate · lifetime818 / 1663 vs 305 / 66449.2%45.9%818 / 1663 vs 305 / 664Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrelaTrela 1.56/Mrugala 2.18
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.2%
Trela · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mrugala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 17:45M. Trela4997111482B. Mrugala531111812113
LSep 8 · 24:10M. Trela46681111102B. Mrugala50111179123
WSep 7 · 15:25M. Trela331111113B. Mrugala206590
WMay 14 · 13:00M. Trela6111101118113B. Mrugala5481282062
LMay 6 · 13:00M. Trela321151151B. Mrugala4051113113
LApr 20 · 17:30M. Trela501011811102B. Mrugala48124119123
WApr 1 · 13:00M. Trela43111110113B. Mrugala32861261
LMar 25 · 14:00M. Trela361171081B. Mrugala4061112113
LMar 12 · 14:00M. Trela216870B. Mrugala331111113
LMar 5 · 11:05M. Trela247890B. Mrugala331111113
M. Trela10
WSep 16 · 23:20M. Skorski1.91861181M. Trela1.7011119113LSep 16 · 22:35K. Golaszewski2.2011129113M. Trela1.609101181WSep 16 · 21:05W. Gluszek1.9510550M. Trela1.701211113LSep 16 · 20:30M. Trela1.85115115122M. Skorski1.80511811143LSep 16 · 18:55M. Trela1.5491111742P. Strus2.17116111113LSep 16 · 17:45M. Trela1.8797111482B. Mrugala1.831111812113WSep 16 · 16:15M. Trela1.723M. Kowalczyk2.000WSep 16 · 15:00M. Trela1.76311811113W. Gluszek1.9011711552WSep 14 · 23:20M. Lukaszewski1.994101191M. Trela1.6811128113LSep 14 · 22:35A. Myszewski1.9311311113M. Trela1.77711481
B. Mrugala10
WSep 16 · 22:55W. Gluszek1.8811670B. Mrugala1.821311113LSep 16 · 21:30M. Skorski1.8311117123B. Mrugala1.887811101LSep 16 · 20:05B. Mrugala1.9010111191W. Gluszek1.8012139113WSep 16 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.80111165102B. Mrugala1.80881111123WSep 16 · 17:45M. Trela1.8797111482B. Mrugala1.831111812113WSep 16 · 16:55B. Mrugala2.101111113M. Skorski1.656870LSep 16 · 15:50B. Mrugala1.760P. Strus1.903WSep 9 · 24:35P. Ostachowski2.05981191B. Mrugala1.6611115113WSep 8 · 22:55K. Klocek1.51119111192B. Mrugala2.28811413113WSep 8 · 22:15K. Golaszewski2.00111555112B. Mrugala1.678131111133
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