TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140961
Played Sep 16Finished
Michal Skorski
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811611119811––
Mateusz Trela
Away
1.70
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:47 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Skorski to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
811611119811––
H2H Michal Skorski 51–50 Mateusz Trela Mateusz Trela has won 50 of their 101 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Skorski beat Trela 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:47What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (53%)
Trela
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-50 in 101
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorski 1242 vs Trela 1296
Trela
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorski 80% vs Trela 20%
Skorski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorski 60% vs Trela 40%
Skorski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorski -1 · Trela -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Trela) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trela form (20%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorski 1.91 / Trela 1.70
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Trela)+1.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13140961
Skorski1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 87 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Trela1.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
As favourite56% won 135 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it93% 51 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it73% 88 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkorski5wins
AwayTrela5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorski75%3 of 4
AwayTrela66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorski4Trela6n = 10Trela took 6 of 10
S2Skorski7Trela3n = 10Skorski took 7 of 10
S3Skorski5Trela5n = 10split evenly
S4Skorski3Trela5n = 8Trela took 5 of 8
S5Skorski3Trela3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkorskiTrelaS − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match45.443.7+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorskiTrelaBasisWin rate · lifetime721 / 1495 vs 819 / 166648.2%49.2%721 / 1495 vs 819 / 1666Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrelaSkorski 1.91/Trela 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Trela · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Trela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 20:30M. Skorski49511811143M. Trela44115115122
LAug 7 · 21:05M. Skorski56915111292M. Trela561113714113
LJul 31 · 21:05M. Skorski4491113111M. Trela4711815133
LJul 31 · 19:20M. Skorski4491181152M. Trela47118116113
WJul 25 · 01:00M. Skorski381314113M. Trela31111280
WJul 24 · 22:35M. Skorski4311912113M. Trela334111081
WJul 24 · 20:30M. Skorski51713119113M. Trela45111171152
LJul 9 · 01:00M. Skorski29108110M. Trela361211133
LJul 8 · 22:35M. Skorski49111211782M. Trela54914911113
WJul 8 · 20:30M. Skorski51111189123M. Trela44751111102
M. Skorski10
LSep 17 · 24:10M. Skorski1.8611101271W. Gluszek1.80131210113LSep 16 · 21:55M. Skorski1.6581281172K. Golaszewski2.051110118113WSep 16 · 21:30M. Skorski1.8311117123B. Mrugala1.887811101WSep 16 · 20:30M. Trela1.85115115122M. Skorski1.80511811143WSep 16 · 19:20M. Skorski1.8071211113W. Gluszek1.801110781WSep 16 · 18:10P. Strus2.2571211462M. Skorski1.541110311113LSep 16 · 16:55B. Mrugala2.101111113M. Skorski1.656870LSep 16 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk1.92121111123M. Skorski1.731475101WAug 22 · 24:10M. Skorski3.151111113B. Mrugala1.307960WAug 21 · 23:20M. Skorski1.86113117113W. Gluszek1.8391171172
M. Trela10
LSep 16 · 22:35K. Golaszewski2.2011129113M. Trela1.609101181LSep 16 · 22:15M. Trela1.56691191B. Mrugala2.1811117113WSep 16 · 21:05W. Gluszek1.9510550M. Trela1.701211113LSep 16 · 20:30M. Trela1.85115115122M. Skorski1.80511811143LSep 16 · 18:55M. Trela1.5491111742P. Strus2.17116111113LSep 16 · 17:45M. Trela1.8797111482B. Mrugala1.831111812113WSep 16 · 16:15M. Trela1.723M. Kowalczyk2.000WSep 16 · 15:00M. Trela1.76311811113W. Gluszek1.9011711552WSep 14 · 23:20M. Lukaszewski1.994101191M. Trela1.6811128113LSep 14 · 22:35A. Myszewski1.9311311113M. Trela1.77711481
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