TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140971
Played Sep 16Finished
Michal Skorski
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171187111210––
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Away
1.88
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mrugala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
1171187111210––
H2H Michal Skorski 7–11 Bartlomiej Mrugala Michal Skorski has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Mrugala beat Skorski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Skorski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Mrugala
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorski 1252 vs Mrugala 1340
Mrugala
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorski 60% vs Mrugala 80%
Mrugala
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorski 70% vs Mrugala 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorski +3 · Mrugala +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mrugala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrugala form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorski 1.83 / Mrugala 1.88
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mrugala)+4.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13140971
Skorski1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 133 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it99% 65 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it76% 107 of 141
Mrugala1.88
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As underdog44% won 110 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back22% 28 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkorski4wins
AwayMrugala6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMrugala leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorski100%4 of 4
AwayMrugala100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorski4Mrugala6n = 10Mrugala took 6 of 10
S2Skorski5Mrugala5n = 10split evenly
S3Skorski7Mrugala3n = 10Skorski took 7 of 10
S4Skorski2Mrugala6n = 8Mrugala took 6 of 8
S5Skorski2Mrugala3n = 5Mrugala took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkorskiMrugalaS − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.541.0−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorskiMrugalaBasisWin rate · lifetime720 / 1492 vs 305 / 66248.3%46.1%720 / 1492 vs 305 / 662Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrugalaSkorski 1.83/Mrugala 1.88
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mrugala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skorski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 16:55M. Skorski216870B. Mrugala331111113
WAug 22 · 24:10M. Skorski331111113B. Mrugala227960
LAug 21 · 17:20M. Skorski4696111192B. Mrugala48111169113
LJul 7 · 24:35M. Skorski381081191B. Mrugala4212118113
LJul 6 · 22:10M. Skorski48111111872B. Mrugala51137911113
WJul 6 · 17:45M. Skorski3811511113B. Mrugala33811861
LMay 14 · 09:00M. Skorski44411118102B. Mrugala45116511123
WApr 16 · 10:05M. Skorski48141175113B. Mrugala47129111142
WApr 15 · 13:00M. Skorski471111410113B. Mrugala4176111252
LApr 1 · 10:05M. Skorski421371391B. Mrugala48151111113
M. Skorski10
LSep 16 · 21:55M. Skorski1.6581281172K. Golaszewski2.051110118113WSep 16 · 20:30M. Trela1.85115115122M. Skorski1.80511811143WSep 16 · 19:20M. Skorski1.8071211113W. Gluszek1.801110781WSep 16 · 18:10P. Strus2.2571211462M. Skorski1.541110311113LSep 16 · 16:55B. Mrugala2.101111113M. Skorski1.656870LSep 16 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk1.92121111123M. Skorski1.731475101WAug 22 · 24:10M. Skorski3.151111113B. Mrugala1.307960WAug 21 · 23:20M. Skorski1.86113117113W. Gluszek1.8391171172LAug 21 · 21:55M. Skorski2.45101112982K. Golaszewski1.471251011113WAug 21 · 21:30M. Skorski2.4081111113A. Eliasz1.50119581
B. Mrugala10
WSep 16 · 22:15M. Trela1.56691191B. Mrugala2.1811117113LSep 16 · 20:05B. Mrugala1.9010111191W. Gluszek1.8012139113WSep 16 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.80111165102B. Mrugala1.80881111123WSep 16 · 17:45M. Trela1.8797111482B. Mrugala1.831111812113WSep 16 · 16:55B. Mrugala2.101111113M. Skorski1.656870LSep 16 · 15:50B. Mrugala1.760P. Strus1.903WSep 9 · 24:35P. Ostachowski2.05981191B. Mrugala1.6611115113WSep 8 · 22:55K. Klocek1.51119111192B. Mrugala2.28811413113WSep 8 · 22:15K. Golaszewski2.00111555112B. Mrugala1.678131111133LAug 22 · 24:10M. Skorski3.151111113B. Mrugala1.307960
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