TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138961
Played Sep 16Finished
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118117––––
Michal Skorski
Away
1.65
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mrugala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
116118117––––
H2H Bartlomiej Mrugala 10–6 Michal Skorski Michal Skorski has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:26What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Skorski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Mrugala
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrugala 1307 vs Skorski 1240
Mrugala
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrugala 60% vs Skorski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrugala 70% vs Skorski 50%
Mrugala
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrugala +3 · Skorski -1
Mrugala
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skorski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrugala form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrugala 2.10 / Skorski 1.65
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skorski)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13138961
Mrugala2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 110 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back22% 28 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 64
Skorski1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 133 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it99% 65 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it76% 107 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrugala7wins
AwaySkorski3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMrugala leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrugala100%7 of 7
AwaySkorski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrugala7Skorski3n = 10Mrugala took 7 of 10
S2Mrugala5Skorski5n = 10split evenly
S3Mrugala4Skorski6n = 10Skorski took 6 of 10
S4Mrugala7Skorski2n = 9Mrugala took 7 of 9
S5Mrugala3Skorski2n = 5Mrugala took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrugalaSkorskiM − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.840.9+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrugalaSkorskiBasisWin rate · lifetime302 / 658 vs 717 / 148845.9%48.2%302 / 658 vs 717 / 1488Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorskiMrugala 2.10/Skorski 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skorski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mrugala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 17:20B. Mrugala48111169113M. Skorski4696111192
WJul 7 · 24:35B. Mrugala4212118113M. Skorski381081191
WJul 6 · 22:10B. Mrugala51137911113M. Skorski48111111872
LJul 6 · 17:45B. Mrugala33811861M. Skorski3811511113
WMay 14 · 09:00B. Mrugala45116511123M. Skorski44411118102
LApr 16 · 10:05B. Mrugala47129111142M. Skorski48141175113
LApr 15 · 13:00B. Mrugala4176111252M. Skorski471111410113
WApr 1 · 10:05B. Mrugala48151111113M. Skorski421371391
WMar 24 · 10:20B. Mrugala3811311133M. Skorski367117111
WMar 12 · 15:35B. Mrugala351311113M. Skorski2211650
B. Mrugala10
LSep 16 · 15:50B. Mrugala1.760P. Strus1.903WSep 9 · 24:35P. Ostachowski2.05981191B. Mrugala1.6611115113WSep 8 · 22:55K. Klocek1.51119111192B. Mrugala2.28811413113WSep 8 · 22:15K. Golaszewski2.00111555112B. Mrugala1.678131111133LSep 8 · 21:30J. Rolak1.911211113B. Mrugala1.7410870LSep 8 · 20:05B. Mrugala2.308780K. Klocek1.551111113WSep 8 · 18:30P. Ostachowski2.00811831B. Mrugala1.7111411113WSep 8 · 17:45K. Golaszewski1.9712981142B. Mrugala1.691011118113WSep 8 · 16:55B. Mrugala1.80119211133J. Rolak1.86811119112LSep 8 · 15:50B. Mrugala2.10115861D. Szlubowski1.6571111113
M. Skorski10
LSep 16 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk1.92121111123M. Skorski1.731475101WAug 22 · 24:10M. Skorski3.151111113B. Mrugala1.307960WAug 21 · 23:20M. Skorski1.86113117113W. Gluszek1.8391171172LAug 21 · 21:55M. Skorski2.45101112982K. Golaszewski1.471251011113WAug 21 · 21:30M. Skorski2.4081111113A. Eliasz1.50119581WAug 21 · 19:40M. Skorski1.361191111113P. Strus2.8091113442LAug 21 · 18:30M. Skorski1.806131181A. Eliasz1.9011158113LAug 21 · 17:20M. Skorski1.7796111192B. Mrugala1.91111169113WAug 21 · 16:15W. Gluszek2.05681391M. Skorski1.65111111113LAug 21 · 15:25M. Skorski1.90811571K. Sulkowski1.7611811113
Upcoming Matches
B. Mrugala
Sep 16 · 17:45B. Mrugala2.02M. Trela1.62—Sep 16 · 18:30B. Mrugala1.80M. Kowalczyk1.80—Sep 16 · 20:05B. Mrugala2.10W. Gluszek1.60—Sep 16 · 21:30B. Mrugala2.05M. Skorski1.63—Sep 16 · 22:15B. Mrugala2.18M. Trela1.56—Sep 16 · 22:55B. Mrugala2.05W. Gluszek1.63—Sep 17 · 24:35B. Mrugala1.72K. Golaszewski1.93—
M. Skorski
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