TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098045
Played Sep 8Finished
Jaroslaw Rolak
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210118117––––
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Away
1.74
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mrugala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
1210118117––––
H2H Jaroslaw Rolak 31–34 Bartlomiej Mrugala Jaroslaw Rolak has won 31 of their 65 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Mrugala beat Rolak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:40What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (52%)
Mrugala
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-34 in 65
Mrugala
Wrong
gap of 3 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rolak 1235 vs Mrugala 1291
Mrugala
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rolak 40% vs Mrugala 60%
Mrugala
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rolak 50% vs Mrugala 70%
Mrugala
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rolak -2 · Mrugala -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mrugala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rolak form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRolak 1.91 / Mrugala 1.74
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mrugala)+1.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13098045
Rolak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 195 of 509
Down 0–1, comes back19% 52 of 277
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 125
Mrugala1.74
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 65 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it78% 43 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRolak6wins
AwayMrugala4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRolak leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRolak83.3%5 of 6
AwayMrugala75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rolak6Mrugala4n = 10Rolak took 6 of 10
S2Rolak5Mrugala5n = 10split evenly
S3Rolak9Mrugala1n = 10Rolak took 9 of 10
S4Rolak5Mrugala3n = 8Rolak took 5 of 8
S5Rolak1Mrugala4n = 5Mrugala took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRolakMrugalaR − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.238.9+2.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRolakMrugalaBasisWin rate · lifetime659 / 1442 vs 299 / 65445.7%45.7%659 / 1442 vs 299 / 654Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrugalaRolak 1.91/Mrugala 1.74
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mrugala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rolak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 16:55J. Rolak—811119112B. Mrugala—119211133
WSep 1 · 23:20J. Rolak—11912113B. Mrugala—7111031
WSep 1 · 20:30J. Rolak—11811123B. Mrugala—8114101
LAug 31 · 22:35J. Rolak—64111122B. Mrugala—111176113
WAug 31 · 16:55J. Rolak—1111123B. Mrugala—66100
WAug 20 · 22:15J. Rolak—12511133B. Mrugala—10119111
WAug 20 · 16:55J. Rolak—1212153B. Mrugala—1010130
WJul 28 · 22:15J. Rolak—611116113B. Mrugala—11671172
LJul 28 · 18:10J. Rolak—51171182B. Mrugala—113118113
LJul 8 · 24:35J. Rolak—11711582B. Mrugala—911911113
J. Rolak10
WSep 8 · 21:55J. Rolak1.541111113P. Ostachowski2.256350LSep 8 · 20:30K. Golaszewski1.87914511113J. Rolak1.83111211972LSep 8 · 19:20J. Rolak2.46711614102K. Klocek1.441171112123WSep 8 · 18:10D. Szlubowski1.441181351J. Rolak2.4681115113LSep 8 · 16:55B. Mrugala1.80119211133J. Rolak1.86811119112WSep 8 · 15:25P. Ostachowski5.106680J. Rolak1.121111113WSep 5 · 13:55J. Rolak1.591111113W. Suchecki2.176750LSep 5 · 12:40J. Rolak1.80961181A. Szoltysek1.9011118113LSep 5 · 11:25J. Rolak1.6011115882W. Iwasyszyn2.20951111113WSep 5 · 10:10T. Piotrowski1.60119631J. Rolak2.2071111113
B. Mrugala10
WSep 8 · 22:15K. Golaszewski2.00111555112B. Mrugala1.678131111133LSep 8 · 20:05B. Mrugala2.308780K. Klocek1.551111113WSep 8 · 18:30P. Ostachowski2.00811831B. Mrugala1.7111411113WSep 8 · 17:45K. Golaszewski1.9712981142B. Mrugala1.691011118113WSep 8 · 16:55B. Mrugala1.80119211133J. Rolak1.86811119112LSep 8 · 15:50B. Mrugala2.10115861D. Szlubowski1.6571111113WSep 8 · 24:10M. Trela1.66681111102B. Mrugala2.05111179123WSep 7 · 23:45B. Mrugala1.741112113K. Golaszewski1.9191060LSep 7 · 22:55B. Mrugala2.234111181J. Przewlocki1.5311137113WSep 7 · 21:05B. Mrugala2.0017612113W. Iwasyszyn1.7215111081
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