TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130220
Played Sep 14Finished
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Home
1.99
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111012118911––
Mateusz Trela
Away
1.68
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMikolaj Lukaszewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
4111012118911––
H2H Mikolaj Lukaszewski 52–60 Mateusz Trela Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 52 of their 112 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Lukaszewski beat Trela 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:32What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (54%)
Trela
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-60 in 112
Trela
Correct
gap of 8 in 112, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lukaszewski 1390 vs Trela 1311
Lukaszewski
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lukaszewski 100% vs Trela 40%
Lukaszewski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lukaszewski 80% vs Trela 30%
Lukaszewski
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lukaszewski +5 · Trela -2
Lukaszewski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Trela) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trela form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLukaszewski 1.99 / Trela 1.68
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Trela)-0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13130220
Lukaszewski1.99
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 257 of 633
Down 0–1, comes back14% 48 of 350
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 190
Trela1.68
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 135 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it93% 50 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it72% 87 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLukaszewski4wins
AwayTrela6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTrela leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLukaszewski80%4 of 5
AwayTrela100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lukaszewski5Trela5n = 10split evenly
S2Lukaszewski6Trela4n = 10Lukaszewski took 6 of 10
S3Lukaszewski4Trela6n = 10Trela took 6 of 10
S4Lukaszewski2Trela3n = 5Trela took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLukaszewskiTrelaL − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.237.0−1.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLukaszewskiTrelaBasisWin rate · lifetime925 / 2013 vs 819 / 166146%49.3%925 / 2013 vs 819 / 1661Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrelaLukaszewski 1.99/Trela 1.68
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Trela · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Trela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 22:35M. Lukaszewski331111113M. Trela237970
WSep 2 · 06:30M. Lukaszewski4011117113M. Trela33691171
LAug 28 · 23:20M. Lukaszewski4487111262M. Trela521111910113
LAug 28 · 20:30M. Lukaszewski2161050M. Trela341112113
LAug 19 · 23:45M. Lukaszewski3099120M. Trela361111143
LAug 18 · 05:15M. Lukaszewski301136101M. Trela4281111123
WAug 13 · 24:10M. Lukaszewski381314113M. Trela31111280
LAug 12 · 15:00M. Lukaszewski408131091M. Trela45111112113
LAug 7 · 23:45M. Lukaszewski4113117101M. Trela4515711123
WJul 16 · 24:10M. Lukaszewski351113113M. Trela2991190
M. Lukaszewski10
WSep 15 · 24:10M. Lukaszewski1.321112113P. Ostachowski3.0551080WSep 14 · 21:55M. Lukaszewski2.1311118113A. Myszewski1.59771171WSep 14 · 21:30M. Lukaszewski1.661111113K. Golaszewski2.014890WSep 14 · 20:30M. Trela1.737911111M. Lukaszewski1.9211118133WSep 14 · 19:20M. Lukaszewski1.441111113P. Ostachowski2.505580WSep 14 · 18:10P. Strus2.2551290M. Lukaszewski1.571114113WSep 14 · 16:55K. Golaszewski1.9311860M. Lukaszewski1.771311113LSep 14 · 15:25A. Myszewski1.60711711133M. Lukaszewski2.10117115112WSep 13 · 14:20M. Lukaszewski1.851112113P. Staniszewski1.8041080LSep 13 · 12:40M. Sinicki1.75116611113M. Lukaszewski1.9571111682
M. Trela10
LSep 14 · 22:35A. Myszewski1.9311311113M. Trela1.77711481LSep 14 · 22:15M. Trela1.568101141K. Golaszewski2.1711128113WSep 14 · 21:05P. Ostachowski3.50612771M. Trela1.24111011113LSep 14 · 20:30M. Trela1.737911111M. Lukaszewski1.9211118133WSep 14 · 18:55M. Trela1.491211113P. Strus2.3310510LSep 14 · 17:45M. Trela1.95811791K. Golaszewski1.7011511113LSep 14 · 16:15M. Trela1.96991151A. Myszewski1.6911119113WSep 14 · 15:00M. Trela1.2511119113P. Ostachowski3.40931151LSep 11 · 07:40M. Trela2.357980J. Glanowski1.521111113LSep 11 · 06:30M. Trela1.857101181M. Zagajewski1.8011128113
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