TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13158426
Played Sep 19Finished
Adrian Eliasz
Home
1.87
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1196111311711119
Dawid Kotwica
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:49 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Kotwica to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
1196111311711119
H2H Adrian Eliasz 36–28 Dawid Kotwica Dawid Kotwica has won 28 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:49What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Kotwica
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-28 in 64
Eliasz
Correct
gap of 8 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Eliasz 1232 vs Kotwica 1271
Kotwica
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Eliasz 40% vs Kotwica 80%
Kotwica
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Eliasz 40% vs Kotwica 70%
Kotwica
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Eliasz +1 · Kotwica -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kotwica) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotwica form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEliasz 1.87 / Kotwica 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kotwica)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13158426
Eliasz1.87
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 69 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back19% 24 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Kotwica1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 64 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it83% 29 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it75% 49 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeEliasz3wins
AwayKotwica7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKotwica leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEliasz40%2 of 5
AwayKotwica80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Eliasz5Kotwica5n = 10split evenly
S2Eliasz3Kotwica7n = 10Kotwica took 7 of 10
S3Eliasz6Kotwica4n = 10Eliasz took 6 of 10
S4Eliasz1Kotwica6n = 7Kotwica took 6 of 7
S5Eliasz1Kotwica2n = 3Kotwica took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricEliaszKotwicaE − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.740.3−2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEliaszKotwicaBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 904 vs 643 / 156437.2%41.1%336 / 904 vs 643 / 1564Avg sets wonper match1.71.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotwicaEliasz 1.87/Kotwica 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kotwica · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Eliasz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 30 · 23:45A. Eliasz531011117143D. Kotwica49129511122
LJun 14 · 17:25A. Eliasz415811171D. Kotwica5011119193
LMay 31 · 18:35A. Eliasz34981161D. Kotwica3411111113
LMay 24 · 06:35A. Eliasz30117571D. Kotwica4181111113
WApr 18 · 23:50A. Eliasz4011117113D. Kotwica34981161
LApr 18 · 21:30A. Eliasz2596100D. Kotwica341111123
LApr 16 · 15:50A. Eliasz45115111082D. Kotwica48511912113
LApr 2 · 23:20A. Eliasz32913100D. Kotwica381115123
WApr 2 · 21:00A. Eliasz371511113D. Kotwica2713950
LMar 29 · 15:30A. Eliasz4011711652D. Kotwica48811711113
A. Eliasz10
LSep 19 · 18:30A. Mugowski1.5761111113A. Eliasz2.20114891WSep 19 · 17:45W. Gluszek1.786640A. Eliasz1.931111113WSep 19 · 15:50A. Eliasz2.85111111113P. Krukar1.36136871LSep 19 · 24:10A. Eliasz2.35121191092K. Klocek1.501061112113LSep 18 · 23:20A. Eliasz2.0011105101M. Skorski1.7191211123WSep 18 · 21:55A. Eliasz—1115311113A. Pilch—413111392LSep 18 · 21:30A. Eliasz2.55117771P. Maruszak1.4571111113LSep 13 · 13:55M. Sinicki1.6011811113A. Eliasz2.10811991WSep 13 · 13:05B. Wisniewski1.807111261A. Eliasz1.9111814113WSep 13 · 12:15A. Eliasz1.90111179113M. Piecowski1.8078111192
D. Kotwica10
WSep 19 · 18:10P. Krukar1.587790D. Kotwica2.251111113LSep 19 · 15:25A. Mugowski1.581161114123D. Kotwica2.20811816102WSep 16 · 24:35M. Kowalczyk1.9010111191D. Kotwica1.8012137113WSep 15 · 22:55K. Golaszewski2.106950D. Kotwica1.601111113WSep 15 · 22:15J. Rolak1.8591070D. Kotwica1.751112113WSep 15 · 21:30P. Ostachowski5.209890D. Kotwica1.101111113WSep 15 · 19:40D. Kotwica2.1611114113D. Szlubowski1.57881191WSep 15 · 18:30D. Kotwica1.917121110113J. Nosiadek1.80111081292WSep 15 · 17:20D. Kotwica1.68138118113K. Golaszewski2.05111131102LSep 15 · 16:15P. Ostachowski5.201111113D. Kotwica1.108790
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