TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159441
Played Sep 19Finished
Dawid Kotwica
Home
2.05
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117119911119––
Piotr Staniszewski
Away
1.68
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Kotwica to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
117119911119––
H2H Dawid Kotwica 12–12 Piotr Staniszewski Dead even across their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:58What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (55%)
Staniszewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-12 in 24
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotwica 1259 vs Staniszewski 1331
Staniszewski
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotwica 60% vs Staniszewski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotwica 70% vs Staniszewski 50%
Kotwica
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotwica -1 · Staniszewski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Staniszewski) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotwica form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotwica 2.05 / Staniszewski 1.68
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Staniszewski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13159441
Kotwica2.05
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 137 of 387
Down 0–1, comes back19% 42 of 224
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 137
Staniszewski1.68
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 13)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 73 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it83% 60 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotwica3wins
AwayStaniszewski7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStaniszewski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotwica50%2 of 4
AwayStaniszewski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotwica4Staniszewski6n = 10Staniszewski took 6 of 10
S2Kotwica4Staniszewski6n = 10Staniszewski took 6 of 10
S3Kotwica2Staniszewski8n = 10Staniszewski took 8 of 10
S4Kotwica3Staniszewski4n = 7Staniszewski took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotwicaStaniszewskiK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.239.8−4.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotwicaStaniszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime646 / 1569 vs 401 / 86441.2%46.4%646 / 1569 vs 401 / 864Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaniszewskiKotwica 2.05/Staniszewski 1.68
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Staniszewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kotwica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 13:05D. Kotwica355111271P. Staniszewski4211614113
WAug 23 · 04:55D. Kotwica3911115123P. Staniszewski379711101
WMay 17 · 24:40D. Kotwica47111149123P. Staniszewski49981111102
LMay 16 · 22:15D. Kotwica32116781P. Staniszewski4291111113
LMay 9 · 18:35D. Kotwica216780P. Staniszewski331111113
LApr 25 · 13:50D. Kotwica531012121182P. Staniszewski551214108113
LMar 29 · 09:50D. Kotwica31117941P. Staniszewski4181111113
WJan 17 · 07:15D. Kotwica4291111113P. Staniszewski30112891
LJan 17 · 04:45D. Kotwica27106110P. Staniszewski361211133
LDec 25 · 11:25D. Kotwica257990P. Staniszewski331111113
D. Kotwica10
LSep 19 · 21:30D. Kotwica1.66119851A. Eliasz2.0091111113WSep 19 · 20:30W. Gluszek1.83118971D. Kotwica1.8381111113WSep 19 · 19:20D. Kotwica2.151111113A. Pilch1.639860WSep 19 · 18:10P. Krukar1.587790D. Kotwica2.251111113LSep 19 · 16:55A. Eliasz1.87116137113D. Kotwica1.83911111192LSep 19 · 15:25A. Mugowski1.581161114123D. Kotwica2.20811816102WSep 16 · 24:35M. Kowalczyk1.9010111191D. Kotwica1.8012137113WSep 15 · 22:55K. Golaszewski2.106950D. Kotwica1.601111113WSep 15 · 22:15J. Rolak1.8591070D. Kotwica1.751112113WSep 15 · 21:30P. Ostachowski5.209890D. Kotwica1.101111113
P. Staniszewski10
WSep 19 · 22:35P. Staniszewski1.7591114123W. Gluszek1.9011312101LSep 13 · 14:20M. Lukaszewski1.851112113P. Staniszewski1.8041080WSep 13 · 13:30M. Piecowski2.196760P. Staniszewski1.551111113WSep 13 · 11:25M. Sinicki1.9078141192P. Staniszewski1.761111127113WSep 13 · 10:35A. Eliasz2.2551112982P. Staniszewski1.571191011113LSep 13 · 09:00B. Wisniewski2.0581111133P. Staniszewski1.631156111WSep 13 · 08:10B. Wisniewski2.0510340P. Staniszewski1.631211113LSep 13 · 07:20A. Eliasz2.1511118153P. Staniszewski1.628811131LSep 13 · 05:15D. Poloszczanski1.9012119113P. Staniszewski1.751021161LSep 13 · 04:30M. Piecowski2.157111011113P. Staniszewski1.6311912892
Upcoming Matches
D. Kotwica
P. Staniszewski
Sep 19 · 23:45P. Staniszewski1.95P. Krukar1.76—Sep 20 · 24:35P. Staniszewski1.57A. Eliasz2.20—Sep 20 · 03:20P. Staniszewski2.25M. Zagajewski1.54—Sep 20 · 04:00P. Staniszewski2.60K. Kufel1.41—Sep 20 · 05:15P. Staniszewski1.80M. Lukaszewski1.86—Sep 20 · 06:25P. Staniszewski2.12M. Misiak1.52—Sep 20 · 07:40P. Staniszewski2.17I. Dabrowski1.50—
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