TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13122440
Played Sep 13Finished
Adrian Eliasz
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111191210911811
Piotr Staniszewski
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:32 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeAdrian Eliasz to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
97 points played in total.
Set by set
5111191210911811
H2H Adrian Eliasz 10–8 Piotr Staniszewski Piotr Staniszewski has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Eliasz beat Staniszewski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:32What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Staniszewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Eliasz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Eliasz 1216 vs Staniszewski 1337
Staniszewski
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Eliasz 40% vs Staniszewski 20%
Eliasz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Eliasz 60% vs Staniszewski 30%
Eliasz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Eliasz -2 · Staniszewski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Staniszewski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniszewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEliasz 2.25 / Staniszewski 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Staniszewski)+1.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13122440
Eliasz2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 73 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back19% 26 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 72
Staniszewski1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 70 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it85% 56 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeEliasz4wins
AwayStaniszewski6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStaniszewski leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEliasz60%3 of 5
AwayStaniszewski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Eliasz5Staniszewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Eliasz5Staniszewski5n = 10split evenly
S3Eliasz3Staniszewski7n = 10Staniszewski took 7 of 10
S4Eliasz3Staniszewski6n = 9Staniszewski took 6 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricEliaszStaniszewskiE − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.039.5−1.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEliaszStaniszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime334 / 897 vs 403 / 87037.2%46.3%334 / 897 vs 403 / 870Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaniszewskiEliasz 2.25/Staniszewski 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.3%
Staniszewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Staniszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 07:20A. Eliasz4511118153P. Staniszewski408811131
LMar 22 · 14:30A. Eliasz4211119111P. Staniszewski4691311133
LMar 22 · 01:15A. Eliasz371151381P. Staniszewski4471115113
LMar 21 · 22:50A. Eliasz38911991P. Staniszewski3811511113
WMar 15 · 15:40A. Eliasz4011117113P. Staniszewski32591171
LMar 13 · 17:45A. Eliasz279990P. Staniszewski331111113
LMar 8 · 01:40A. Eliasz33871171P. Staniszewski3811115113
LMar 7 · 23:15A. Eliasz31691151P. Staniszewski4211119113
WFeb 15 · 10:00A. Eliasz43311117113P. Staniszewski4211781152
WFeb 15 · 09:10A. Eliasz4411119133P. Staniszewski409911111
A. Eliasz10
WSep 13 · 12:15A. Eliasz1.90111179113M. Piecowski1.8078111192LSep 13 · 09:50M. Lukaszewski1.741111123A. Eliasz1.9557100LSep 13 · 08:35M. Sinicki1.6012711113A. Eliasz2.101011981WSep 13 · 07:20A. Eliasz2.1511118153P. Staniszewski1.628811131WSep 13 · 06:05M. Piecowski1.85139831A. Eliasz1.85111111113LSep 13 · 04:55B. Wisniewski1.851114113A. Eliasz1.8571280WSep 13 · 03:25D. Poloszczanski1.8311116682A. Eliasz1.86691111113LSep 10 · 19:40A. Eliasz1.8612750B. Wisniewski1.831411113WSep 10 · 18:30A. Eliasz1.7215116113K. Golaszewski1.931381191WSep 10 · 17:20A. Eliasz2.37111110113K. Klocek1.48791291
P. Staniszewski10
WSep 13 · 11:25M. Sinicki1.9078141192P. Staniszewski1.761111127113LSep 13 · 09:00B. Wisniewski2.0581111133P. Staniszewski1.631156111WSep 13 · 08:10B. Wisniewski2.0510340P. Staniszewski1.631211113LSep 13 · 07:20A. Eliasz2.1511118153P. Staniszewski1.628811131LSep 13 · 05:15D. Poloszczanski1.9012119113P. Staniszewski1.751021161LSep 13 · 04:30M. Piecowski2.157111011113P. Staniszewski1.6311912892WSep 13 · 03:00M. Sinicki1.8511811101P. Staniszewski1.8513119123LSep 6 · 14:15P. Staniszewski2.377650D. Wasilewski1.521111113LSep 6 · 12:35I. Dabrowski1.7411118113P. Staniszewski1.94971151LSep 6 · 11:45J. Michalczyk1.77111120113P. Staniszewski1.90972281
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