TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13154897
Played Sep 19Finished
Mateusz Woskowicz
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
14121012118118––
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Woskowicz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Woskowicz above · Arkadiusz Mugowski below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 86 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Mateusz Woskowicz at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Woskowicz 3–3 Arkadiusz Mugowski Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:02What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mugowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Woskowicz 1386 vs Mugowski 1369
Woskowicz
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Woskowicz 40% vs Mugowski 60%
Mugowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Woskowicz 30% vs Mugowski 50%
Mugowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Woskowicz -2 · Mugowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mugowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Woskowicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWoskowicz 1.83 / Mugowski 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mugowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13154897
Woskowicz1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Mugowski1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeWoskowicz3wins
AwayMugowski3wins
4 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWoskowicz33.3%1 of 3
AwayMugowski33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Woskowicz3Mugowski3n = 6split evenly
S2Woskowicz4Mugowski2n = 6Woskowicz took 4 of 6
S3Woskowicz3Mugowski3n = 6split evenly
S4Woskowicz2Mugowski4n = 6Mugowski took 4 of 6
S5Woskowicz2Mugowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricWoskowiczMugowskiW − MBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match43.043.3−0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWoskowiczMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 240 vs 915 / 199552.5%45.9%126 / 240 vs 915 / 1995Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match40.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiWoskowicz 1.83/Mugowski 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Woskowicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 2 · 10:30M. Woskowicz47111181072A. Mugowski52991112113
WAug 2 · 06:00M. Woskowicz43711113113A. Mugowski4411681182
WMay 17 · 09:05M. Woskowicz50911117123A. Mugowski46118611102
LOct 26 · 02:05M. Woskowicz37118991A. Mugowski4291111113
WOct 25 · 22:40M. Woskowicz4111811113A. Mugowski31711671
LSep 28 · 11:25M. Woskowicz4061151172A. Mugowski45113119113
M. Woskowicz10
LSep 19 · 21:50M. Woskowicz1.671081171A. Pilch2.1012117113LSep 19 · 20:05M. Woskowicz2.751091541P. Blocho1.40121113113LSep 19 · 18:30A. Wos1.5311713113M. Woskowicz2.386111181WSep 19 · 17:40B. Sulkowski2.0011881132M. Woskowicz1.73711116113LSep 19 · 16:55M. Woskowicz2.7531070R. Chrzescian1.401112113WSep 19 · 15:45M. Woskowicz1.671181011113P. Maruszak2.1091112682LSep 19 · 01:30M. Woskowicz1.671115891M. Lukaszewski2.1061711113LSep 19 · 24:45P. Blocho1.571111113M. Woskowicz2.257550LSep 18 · 23:35M. Woskowicz4.00691181K. Staszczyk1.2211114113WSep 18 · 22:50B. Sulkowski2.00781181M. Woskowicz1.7311118113
A. Mugowski10
WSep 19 · 22:55P. Maruszak1.73871141A. Mugowski2.0011117113LSep 19 · 22:10B. Sulkowski1.8311115113A. Mugowski1.83781161LSep 19 · 19:40A. Mugowski1.8691090P. Krukar1.831112113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Mugowski1.5761111113A. Eliasz2.20114891LSep 19 · 17:20A. Mugowski—991141A. Pilch—11117113WSep 19 · 16:15W. Gluszek2.256450A. Mugowski1.571111113WSep 19 · 15:25A. Mugowski1.581161114123D. Kotwica2.20811816102LSep 18 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.301111113A. Mugowski3.406860WSep 17 · 22:55K. Rudomina1.61109111182A. Mugowski2.20121163113LSep 17 · 22:10M. Lukaszewski1.80115911113A. Mugowski1.9181111672
Upcoming Matches
M. Woskowicz
A. Mugowski
Sep 20 · 24:35A. Mugowski1.73A. Pilch2.00—Sep 20 · 15:25A. Mugowski—D. Kotwica——Sep 20 · 16:55A. Mugowski—P. Krukar——Sep 20 · 18:10A. Mugowski—A. Eliasz——Sep 20 · 19:20A. Mugowski—W. Gluszek——Sep 20 · 20:30A. Mugowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 20 · 21:30A. Mugowski—D. Kotwica——Sep 20 · 21:55A. Mugowski—P. Krukar——Sep 20 · 23:20A. Mugowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 21 · 24:10A. Mugowski—W. Gluszek——
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