TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13154733
Played Sep 19Finished
Bartosz Sulkowski
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117118511116––
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:40 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBartosz Sulkowski above · Arkadiusz Mugowski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Arkadiusz Mugowski at 54.4%
70 points played in total.
H2H Bartosz Sulkowski 17–15 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:40What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mugowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-15 in 32
Sulkowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1485 vs Mugowski 1347
Sulkowski
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 40% vs Mugowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 50% vs Mugowski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski -1 · Mugowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sulkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 1.83 / Mugowski 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sulkowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13154733
Sulkowski1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Mugowski1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski6wins
AwayMugowski4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSulkowski leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski50%4 of 8
AwayMugowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski8Mugowski2n = 10Sulkowski took 8 of 10
S2Sulkowski5Mugowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Sulkowski6Mugowski4n = 10Sulkowski took 6 of 10
S4Sulkowski5Mugowski3n = 8Sulkowski took 5 of 8
S5Sulkowski2Mugowski4n = 6Mugowski took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiMugowskiS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.140.7+1.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime568 / 1280 vs 915 / 199744.4%45.8%568 / 1280 vs 915 / 1997Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulkowskiSulkowski 1.83/Mugowski 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sulkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 22:10B. Sulkowski3811115113A. Mugowski32781161
WSep 3 · 06:55B. Sulkowski47116811113A. Mugowski4581111872
LAug 21 · 06:05B. Sulkowski4811814872A. Mugowski549111211113
WJul 26 · 18:55B. Sulkowski46411119113A. Mugowski4211851172
LJul 24 · 05:40B. Sulkowski3811311672A. Mugowski43411611113
WJul 24 · 03:25B. Sulkowski43101111113A. Mugowski34127781
LJun 26 · 11:25B. Sulkowski47118101172A. Mugowski48911125113
LMay 18 · 20:05B. Sulkowski4411581462A. Mugowski527111112113
WApr 29 · 12:40B. Sulkowski361113123A. Mugowski30911100
WApr 21 · 13:55B. Sulkowski341111123A. Mugowski2798100
B. Sulkowski10
WSep 19 · 22:35A. Pilch2.20119841B. Sulkowski1.6161111113LSep 19 · 21:00P. Maruszak1.8311133113B. Sulkowski1.838111181WSep 19 · 20:30B. Sulkowski3.251111311113R. Chrzescian1.3376111372WSep 19 · 18:50B. Sulkowski1.8311117113P. Maruszak1.83981151LSep 19 · 17:40B. Sulkowski2.0011881132M. Woskowicz1.73711116113LSep 19 · 16:05B. Sulkowski3.0078111162A. Wos1.36111196113WSep 19 · 15:00B. Sulkowski2.25771211113P. Blocho1.57111110642LSep 19 · 01:10B. Sulkowski2.2071181162P. Blocho1.61118117113WSep 19 · 24:20B. Sulkowski3.75116711113K. Staszczyk1.2581111552LSep 18 · 22:50B. Sulkowski2.00781181M. Woskowicz1.7311118113
A. Mugowski10
WSep 19 · 22:55P. Maruszak1.73871141A. Mugowski2.0011117113LSep 19 · 21:25M. Woskowicz1.83141011113A. Mugowski1.831212881LSep 19 · 19:40A. Mugowski1.8691090P. Krukar1.831112113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Mugowski1.5761111113A. Eliasz2.20114891LSep 19 · 17:20A. Mugowski—991141A. Pilch—11117113WSep 19 · 16:15W. Gluszek2.256450A. Mugowski1.571111113WSep 19 · 15:25A. Mugowski1.581161114123D. Kotwica2.20811816102LSep 18 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.301111113A. Mugowski3.406860WSep 17 · 22:55K. Rudomina1.61109111182A. Mugowski2.20121163113LSep 17 · 22:10M. Lukaszewski1.80115911113A. Mugowski1.9181111672
Upcoming Matches
B. Sulkowski
Sep 20 · 15:00B. Sulkowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 20 · 16:30B. Sulkowski—P. Blocho——Sep 20 · 17:20B. Sulkowski—A. Wos——Sep 20 · 19:15B. Sulkowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 20 · 20:05B. Sulkowski—M. Kolek——Sep 20 · 21:00B. Sulkowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 20 · 22:55B. Sulkowski—M. Kolek——Sep 20 · 23:45B. Sulkowski—P. Blocho——Sep 21 · 24:10B. Sulkowski—K. Rudomina——
A. Mugowski
Sep 20 · 24:35A. Mugowski1.73A. Pilch2.00—Sep 20 · 15:25A. Mugowski—D. Kotwica——Sep 20 · 16:55A. Mugowski—P. Krukar——Sep 20 · 18:10A. Mugowski—A. Eliasz——Sep 20 · 19:20A. Mugowski—W. Gluszek——Sep 20 · 20:30A. Mugowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 20 · 21:30A. Mugowski—D. Kotwica——Sep 20 · 21:55A. Mugowski—P. Krukar——Sep 20 · 23:20A. Mugowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 21 · 24:10A. Mugowski—W. Gluszek——
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