TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13154734
Played Sep 19Finished
Piotr Maruszak
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181311311118––
Bartosz Sulkowski
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Maruszak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Maruszak above · Bartosz Sulkowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 76 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Piotr Maruszak at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Maruszak 4–2 Bartosz Sulkowski Bartosz Sulkowski has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Sulkowski beat Maruszak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:41What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sulkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Maruszak
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maruszak 1327 vs Sulkowski 1495
Sulkowski
Wrong
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maruszak 0% vs Sulkowski 60%
Sulkowski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maruszak 20% vs Sulkowski 50%
Sulkowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maruszak -7 · Sulkowski +2
Maruszak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sulkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maruszak form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaruszak 1.83 / Sulkowski 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sulkowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13154734
Maruszak1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Sulkowski1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMaruszak4wins
AwaySulkowski2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderMaruszak leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaruszak80%4 of 5
AwaySulkowskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maruszak5Sulkowski1n = 6Maruszak took 5 of 6
S2Maruszak3Sulkowski3n = 6split evenly
S3Maruszak4Sulkowski2n = 6Maruszak took 4 of 6
S4Maruszak2Sulkowski3n = 5Sulkowski took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMaruszakSulkowskiM − SBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match39.238.3+0.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaruszakSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 503 vs 567 / 127847.1%44.4%237 / 503 vs 567 / 1278Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulkowskiMaruszak 1.83/Sulkowski 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sulkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Maruszak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 19 · 18:50P. Maruszak33981151B. Sulkowski4011117113
WSep 18 · 18:05P. Maruszak45111166113B. Sulkowski4587111182
WMay 17 · 13:00P. Maruszak4112711113B. Sulkowski381011981
LMay 16 · 12:35P. Maruszak4511612792B. Sulkowski507111011113
WApr 11 · 10:40P. Maruszak3711114113B. Sulkowski32761181
WFeb 7 · 14:00P. Maruszak341112113B. Sulkowski2591060
P. Maruszak10
LSep 19 · 19:40A. Wos1.44121156113P. Maruszak2.63106111162LSep 19 · 18:50B. Sulkowski1.8311117113P. Maruszak1.83981151LSep 19 · 18:05P. Maruszak2.75811641R. Chrzescian1.4011811113LSep 19 · 16:30P. Maruszak2.5012113322P. Blocho1.501061111113LSep 19 · 15:45M. Woskowicz1.671181011113P. Maruszak2.1091112682LSep 19 · 24:35A. Pilch—1113113P. Maruszak—51140LSep 18 · 22:55K. Klocek2.051111113P. Maruszak1.669990WSep 18 · 22:15M. Skorski2.407790P. Maruszak1.501111113WSep 18 · 21:30A. Eliasz2.55117771P. Maruszak1.4571111113LSep 18 · 21:20P. Maruszak2.63671131M. Kolek1.4411114113
B. Sulkowski10
WSep 19 · 20:30B. Sulkowski3.251111311113R. Chrzescian1.3376111372WSep 19 · 18:50B. Sulkowski1.8311117113P. Maruszak1.83981151LSep 19 · 17:40B. Sulkowski2.0011881132M. Woskowicz1.73711116113LSep 19 · 16:05B. Sulkowski3.0078111162A. Wos1.36111196113WSep 19 · 15:00B. Sulkowski2.25771211113P. Blocho1.57111110642LSep 19 · 01:10B. Sulkowski2.2071181162P. Blocho1.61118117113WSep 19 · 24:20B. Sulkowski3.75116711113K. Staszczyk1.2581111552LSep 18 · 22:50B. Sulkowski2.00781181M. Woskowicz1.7311118113WSep 18 · 22:30B. Sulkowski1.6711127113M. Lukaszewski2.105101171LSep 18 · 21:45K. Staszczyk1.22611611153B. Sulkowski4.00118116132
Upcoming Matches
P. Maruszak
Sep 19 · 22:55P. Maruszak1.73A. Mugowski2.00—Sep 19 · 23:45P. Maruszak1.91A. Pilch1.80—Sep 20 · 24:10P. Maruszak1.83M. Woskowicz1.83—Sep 20 · 09:20P. Maruszak—M. Misiak——Sep 20 · 10:05P. Maruszak—I. Dabrowski——Sep 20 · 11:20P. Maruszak—M. Lukaszewski——Sep 20 · 12:35P. Maruszak—K. Kufel——Sep 20 · 13:50P. Maruszak—M. Zagajewski——
B. Sulkowski
Sep 19 · 22:35B. Sulkowski1.61A. Pilch2.20—Sep 19 · 23:20B. Sulkowski2.00M. Woskowicz1.73—Sep 20 · 15:00B. Sulkowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 20 · 16:30B. Sulkowski—P. Blocho——Sep 20 · 17:20B. Sulkowski—A. Wos——Sep 20 · 19:15B. Sulkowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 20 · 20:05B. Sulkowski—M. Kolek——Sep 20 · 21:00B. Sulkowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 20 · 22:55B. Sulkowski—M. Kolek——Sep 20 · 23:45B. Sulkowski—P. Blocho——
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