TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13154736
Played Sep 19Finished
Bartosz Sulkowski
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119118711115––
Piotr Maruszak
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Maruszak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBartosz Sulkowski above · Piotr Maruszak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 73 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Piotr Maruszak at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Bartosz Sulkowski 1–4 Piotr Maruszak Bartosz Sulkowski has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:41What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Maruszak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Maruszak
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1470 vs Maruszak 1339
Sulkowski
Correct
both rated, 131 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 40% vs Maruszak 0%
Sulkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 50% vs Maruszak 20%
Sulkowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski -2 · Maruszak -5
Maruszak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sulkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maruszak form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 1.83 / Maruszak 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sulkowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13154736
Sulkowski1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Maruszak1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSulkowski1wins
AwayMaruszak4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderMaruszak leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowskin = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMaruszak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski0Maruszak5n = 5Maruszak took 5 of 5
S2Sulkowski2Maruszak3n = 5Maruszak took 3 of 5
S3Sulkowski2Maruszak3n = 5Maruszak took 3 of 5
S4Sulkowski2Maruszak2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricSulkowskiMaruszakS − MBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match38.040.4−2.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiMaruszakBasisWin rate · lifetime565 / 1276 vs 237 / 50144.3%47.3%565 / 1276 vs 237 / 501Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulkowskiSulkowski 1.83/Maruszak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sulkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 18 · 18:05B. Sulkowski4587111182P. Maruszak45111166113
LMay 17 · 13:00B. Sulkowski381011981P. Maruszak4112711113
WMay 16 · 12:35B. Sulkowski507111011113P. Maruszak4511612792
LApr 11 · 10:40B. Sulkowski32761181P. Maruszak3711114113
LFeb 7 · 14:00B. Sulkowski2591060P. Maruszak341112113
B. Sulkowski10
LSep 19 · 17:40B. Sulkowski2.0011881132M. Woskowicz1.73711116113LSep 19 · 16:05B. Sulkowski3.0078111162A. Wos1.36111196113WSep 19 · 15:00B. Sulkowski2.25771211113P. Blocho1.57111110642LSep 19 · 01:10B. Sulkowski2.2071181162P. Blocho1.61118117113WSep 19 · 24:20B. Sulkowski3.75116711113K. Staszczyk1.2581111552LSep 18 · 22:50B. Sulkowski2.00781181M. Woskowicz1.7311118113WSep 18 · 22:30B. Sulkowski1.6711127113M. Lukaszewski2.105101171LSep 18 · 21:45K. Staszczyk1.22611611153B. Sulkowski4.00118116132WSep 18 · 20:30B. Sulkowski3.0011126113M. Kolek1.368101181WSep 18 · 19:15M. Woskowicz1.7371110111B. Sulkowski2.0011712133
P. Maruszak10
LSep 19 · 19:40A. Wos1.44121156113P. Maruszak2.63106111162LSep 19 · 18:05P. Maruszak2.75811641R. Chrzescian1.4011811113LSep 19 · 16:30P. Maruszak2.5012113322P. Blocho1.501061111113LSep 19 · 15:45M. Woskowicz1.671181011113P. Maruszak2.1091112682LSep 19 · 24:35A. Pilch—1113113P. Maruszak—51140LSep 18 · 22:55K. Klocek2.051111113P. Maruszak1.669990WSep 18 · 22:15M. Skorski2.407790P. Maruszak1.501111113WSep 18 · 21:30A. Eliasz2.55117771P. Maruszak1.4571111113LSep 18 · 21:20P. Maruszak2.63671131M. Kolek1.4411114113LSep 18 · 19:40A. Daniel1.221111123P. Maruszak4.0053100
Upcoming Matches
B. Sulkowski
Sep 19 · 20:30B. Sulkowski3.25R. Chrzescian1.33—Sep 19 · 21:00B. Sulkowski1.83P. Maruszak1.83—Sep 19 · 22:10B. Sulkowski1.83A. Mugowski1.83—Sep 19 · 22:35B. Sulkowski1.61A. Pilch2.20—Sep 19 · 23:20B. Sulkowski2.00M. Woskowicz1.73—Sep 20 · 15:00B. Sulkowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 20 · 16:30B. Sulkowski—P. Blocho——Sep 20 · 17:20B. Sulkowski—A. Wos——Sep 20 · 19:15B. Sulkowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 20 · 20:05B. Sulkowski—M. Kolek——
P. Maruszak
Sep 19 · 21:00P. Maruszak1.83B. Sulkowski1.83—Sep 19 · 22:55P. Maruszak1.73A. Mugowski2.00—Sep 19 · 23:45P. Maruszak1.91A. Pilch1.80—Sep 20 · 24:10P. Maruszak1.83M. Woskowicz1.83—Sep 20 · 09:20P. Maruszak—M. Misiak——Sep 20 · 10:05P. Maruszak—I. Dabrowski——Sep 20 · 11:20P. Maruszak—M. Lukaszewski——Sep 20 · 12:35P. Maruszak—K. Kufel——Sep 20 · 13:50P. Maruszak—M. Zagajewski——
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