TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13154901
Played Sep 19Finished
Piotr Maruszak
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811118611411––
Radoslaw Chrzescian
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:05 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeRadoslaw Chrzescian to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Maruszak above · Radoslaw Chrzescian below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 70 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Radoslaw Chrzescian at 66.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Maruszak 2–3 Radoslaw Chrzescian Piotr Maruszak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Chrzescian
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maruszak 1343 vs Chrzescian 1674
Chrzescian
Correct
both rated, 331 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maruszak 20% vs Chrzescian 100%
Chrzescian
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maruszak 30% vs Chrzescian 90%
Chrzescian
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maruszak -4 · Chrzescian +6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Chrzescian)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chrzescian form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaruszak 2.75 / Chrzescian 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Chrzescian)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13154901
Maruszak2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 21 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Chrzescian1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite76% won 58 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it90% 45 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMaruszak2wins
AwayChrzescian3wins
Chrzescian leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaruszak33.3%1 of 3
AwayChrzesciann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maruszak3Chrzescian2n = 5Maruszak took 3 of 5
S2Maruszak1Chrzescian4n = 5Chrzescian took 4 of 5
S3Maruszak2Chrzescian3n = 5Chrzescian took 3 of 5
S4Maruszak2Chrzescian2n = 4split evenly
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMaruszakChrzescianM − CBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match34.837.4−2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaruszakChrzescianBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 500 vs 181 / 34747.4%52.2%237 / 500 vs 181 / 347Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChrzescianMaruszak 2.75/Chrzescian 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Chrzescian · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chrzescian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 28 · 09:30P. Maruszak391199101R. Chrzescian4281111123
LSep 26 · 18:30P. Maruszak2471070R. Chrzescian341112113
WSep 5 · 18:30P. Maruszak4171111123R. Chrzescian381198101
WAug 10 · 03:05P. Maruszak3811511113R. Chrzescian32911751
LAug 9 · 07:35P. Maruszak32117591R. Chrzescian4181111113
P. Maruszak10
LSep 19 · 18:50B. Sulkowski1.8311117113P. Maruszak1.83981151LSep 19 · 16:30P. Maruszak2.5012113322P. Blocho1.501061111113LSep 19 · 15:45M. Woskowicz1.671181011113P. Maruszak2.1091112682LSep 19 · 24:35A. Pilch—1113113P. Maruszak—51140LSep 18 · 22:55K. Klocek2.051111113P. Maruszak1.669990WSep 18 · 22:15M. Skorski2.407790P. Maruszak1.501111113WSep 18 · 21:30A. Eliasz2.55117771P. Maruszak1.4571111113LSep 18 · 21:20P. Maruszak2.63671131M. Kolek1.4411114113LSep 18 · 19:40A. Daniel1.221111123P. Maruszak4.0053100LSep 18 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.17711116113P. Maruszak4.5011591172
R. Chrzescian10
WSep 19 · 16:55M. Woskowicz2.7531070R. Chrzescian1.401112113WSep 19 · 15:25A. Wos2.10810110R. Chrzescian1.671112133WSep 19 · 13:50B. Mleczko2.6511811782R. Chrzescian1.40611611113WSep 19 · 13:00A. Wos2.05121111772R. Chrzescian1.681031311113WSep 19 · 12:10R. Chrzescian1.3551111123W. Gronowski2.851195101WSep 19 · 10:30R. Chrzescian1.4211115113P. Blocho2.46881181LSep 19 · 09:45M. Minda2.751111113R. Chrzescian1.409880WAug 9 · 13:50R. Malinowski2.10761191R. Chrzescian1.6011118113WAug 9 · 13:00B. Kwodawski2.605590R. Chrzescian1.411111113WAug 9 · 12:10R. Chrzescian1.261111113A. Myszewski3.355990
Upcoming Matches
P. Maruszak
Sep 19 · 19:40P. Maruszak2.63A. Wos1.44—Sep 19 · 21:00P. Maruszak1.83B. Sulkowski1.83—Sep 19 · 22:55P. Maruszak1.73A. Mugowski2.00—Sep 19 · 23:45P. Maruszak1.91A. Pilch1.80—Sep 20 · 24:10P. Maruszak1.83M. Woskowicz1.83—Sep 20 · 09:20P. Maruszak—M. Misiak——Sep 20 · 10:05P. Maruszak—I. Dabrowski——Sep 20 · 11:20P. Maruszak—M. Lukaszewski——Sep 20 · 12:35P. Maruszak—K. Kufel——Sep 20 · 13:50P. Maruszak—M. Zagajewski——
R. Chrzescian
Sep 19 · 20:30R. Chrzescian1.33B. Sulkowski3.25—Sep 20 · 03:25R. Chrzescian1.50R. Stapor2.50—Sep 20 · 04:55R. Chrzescian1.50M. Minda2.50—Sep 20 · 06:05R. Chrzescian2.10G. Poliniewicz1.67—Sep 20 · 07:20R. Chrzescian1.73D. Solilo2.00—Sep 20 · 08:30R. Chrzescian1.80G. Kesik1.91—Sep 20 · 09:40R. Chrzescian1.80G. Kesik1.91—Sep 20 · 10:25R. Chrzescian1.50M. Minda2.50—Sep 20 · 12:05R. Chrzescian1.50R. Stapor2.50—Sep 20 · 12:55R. Chrzescian1.57A. Wos2.25—
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