TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147265
Played Sep 18Finished
Bartosz Sulkowski
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181210611118––
Maciej Kolek
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:28 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBartosz Sulkowski above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 62.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Bartosz Sulkowski 28–41 Maciej Kolek Bartosz Sulkowski has won 28 of their 69 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kolek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-41 in 69
Kolek
Wrong
gap of 13 in 69, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1478 vs Kolek 1682
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 204 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 40% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 40% vs Kolek 70%
Kolek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski +1 · Kolek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 3.00 / Kolek 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Kolek)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13147265
Sulkowski3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 155 of 481
Down 0–1, comes back16% 46 of 281
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 136
Kolek1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 258 of 423
Up 2–0, closes it94% 90 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it81% 193 of 238
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski3wins
AwayKolek7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKolek62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski2Kolek8n = 10Kolek took 8 of 10
S2Sulkowski8Kolek2n = 10Sulkowski took 8 of 10
S3Sulkowski3Kolek7n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S4Sulkowski3Kolek7n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S5Sulkowski3Kolek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiKolekS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.444.7−3.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime561 / 1267 vs 715 / 142444.3%50.2%561 / 1267 vs 715 / 1424Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekSulkowski 3.00/Kolek 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 24:10B. Sulkowski4261111592M. Kolek47116811113
LSep 16 · 15:25B. Sulkowski4711117992M. Kolek51991111113
WAug 13 · 12:40B. Sulkowski491211411113M. Kolek4514611682
LAug 12 · 09:25B. Sulkowski351168101M. Kolek4281111123
LAug 8 · 22:55B. Sulkowski34811691M. Kolek3911611113
LAug 8 · 20:30B. Sulkowski43410111172M. Kolek49111278113
WJul 12 · 11:45B. Sulkowski48611119113M. Kolek4611691192
LJul 10 · 10:35B. Sulkowski30314671M. Kolek45111211113
LJul 9 · 03:20B. Sulkowski3910118101M. Kolek4112611123
WJun 18 · 11:25B. Sulkowski47811611113M. Kolek4211711582
B. Sulkowski10
LSep 18 · 21:45K. Staszczyk1.22611611153B. Sulkowski4.00118116132WSep 18 · 19:15M. Woskowicz1.7371110111B. Sulkowski2.0011712133LSep 18 · 18:05P. Maruszak1.73111166113B. Sulkowski2.0087111182WSep 18 · 16:30A. Daniel1.2591111752B. Sulkowski3.75118911113LSep 17 · 24:10M. Kolek1.36116811113B. Sulkowski3.0061111592LSep 16 · 23:45B. Sulkowski4.00911681K. Staszczyk1.2211911113LSep 16 · 22:55B. Sulkowski1.448118101J. Lamperski2.6311311123LSep 16 · 21:00B. Sulkowski2.004780D. Solilo1.731111113WSep 16 · 19:40B. Sulkowski2.101471111113J. Zochniak1.67121113992WSep 16 · 18:30B. Sulkowski1.83116711113M. Minda1.8341111672
M. Kolek10
WSep 18 · 21:20P. Maruszak2.63671131M. Kolek1.4411114113WSep 18 · 18:30A. Daniel1.3391151152M. Kolek3.25117117113WSep 18 · 17:40M. Woskowicz3.2557110M. Kolek1.331111133LSep 18 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.7391111113M. Kolek2.00119551LSep 18 · 24:10M. Kolek1.5071311111K. Rudomina2.5011158133WSep 17 · 23:20M. Kolek1.281310711113M. Lukaszewski3.50111211462WSep 17 · 21:50M. Kolek2.001119113K. Staszczyk1.7391790WSep 17 · 21:25M. Kolek1.4481111113A. Mugowski2.63116751WSep 17 · 20:30M. Lukaszewski4.0011941172M. Kolek1.22911119113WSep 17 · 24:10M. Kolek1.36116811113B. Sulkowski3.0061111592
Upcoming Matches
B. Sulkowski
Sep 18 · 22:50B. Sulkowski2.00M. Woskowicz1.73—Sep 19 · 24:20B. Sulkowski4.00K. Staszczyk1.22—Sep 19 · 01:10B. Sulkowski2.20P. Blocho1.61—Sep 19 · 15:00B. Sulkowski—P. Blocho——Sep 19 · 16:05B. Sulkowski—A. Wos——Sep 19 · 17:40B. Sulkowski—M. Woskowicz——Sep 19 · 18:50B. Sulkowski—P. Maruszak——Sep 19 · 20:30B. Sulkowski—R. Chrzescian——Sep 19 · 21:00B. Sulkowski—P. Maruszak——Sep 19 · 22:10B. Sulkowski—A. Mugowski——
M. Kolek
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.