TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147266
Played Sep 18Finished
Artur Daniel
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911117511117511
Maciej Kolek
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Daniel above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 88 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Artur Daniel 6–1 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:28What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Daniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Daniel
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Daniel 1696 vs Kolek 1657
Daniel
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Daniel 40% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Daniel 30% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Daniel +1 · Kolek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Daniel) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDaniel 1.33 / Kolek 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Daniel)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13147266
Daniel1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 181 of 287
Up 2–0, closes it94% 90 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it77% 140 of 183
Kolek3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 175 of 449
Down 0–1, comes back21% 56 of 266
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeDaniel6wins
AwayKolek1wins
1 of 7 to a deciderDaniel leads 6–1, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDaniel83.3%5 of 6
AwayKolekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Daniel6Kolek1n = 7Daniel took 6 of 7
S2Daniel5Kolek2n = 7Daniel took 5 of 7
S3Daniel4Kolek3n = 7Daniel took 4 of 7
S4Daniel3Kolek2n = 5Daniel took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricDanielKolekD − KBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match38.435.1+3.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanielKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime761 / 1437 vs 714 / 142353%50.2%761 / 1437 vs 714 / 1423Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanielDaniel 1.33/Kolek 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.3%
Daniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel26123561M. Kolek43101111113
WAug 20 · 16:05A. Daniel48111412113M. Kolek398121451
WJul 24 · 20:05A. Daniel4112711113M. Kolek351011951
WMar 5 · 18:00A. Daniel331111113M. Kolek239680
WMar 1 · 18:05A. Daniel381111163M. Kolek3198140
WFeb 5 · 18:50A. Daniel44411117113M. Kolek4211861162
WFeb 1 · 19:20A. Daniel3912115113M. Kolek331061161
A. Daniel10
WSep 18 · 19:40A. Daniel1.221111123P. Maruszak4.0053100WSep 18 · 17:20K. Staszczyk2.257920A. Daniel1.571111113LSep 18 · 16:30A. Daniel1.2591111752B. Sulkowski3.75118911113LSep 18 · 14:35A. Daniel1.8511541142D. Kostal1.80611118113WSep 18 · 13:00A. Daniel1.5011122123K. Wisniewski2.3551011101LSep 18 · 11:45A. Daniel1.80118111192M. Rutkowski1.90911135113LSep 18 · 10:05A. Daniel2.05101360M. Sklensky1.651215113LSep 18 · 09:00A. Daniel3.0513205992M. Olejnik1.3211181111113LSep 9 · 19:40A. Daniel2.388360M. Benes1.531111113WSep 9 · 18:30A. Daniel1.61111111113M. Olbrycht2.20681361
M. Kolek10
WSep 18 · 17:40M. Woskowicz3.2557110M. Kolek1.331111133LSep 18 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.7391111113M. Kolek2.00119551LSep 18 · 24:10M. Kolek1.5071311111K. Rudomina2.5011158133WSep 17 · 23:20M. Kolek1.281310711113M. Lukaszewski3.50111211462WSep 17 · 21:50M. Kolek2.001119113K. Staszczyk1.7391790WSep 17 · 21:25M. Kolek1.4481111113A. Mugowski2.63116751WSep 17 · 20:30M. Lukaszewski4.0011941172M. Kolek1.22911119113LSep 17 · 19:15M. Kolek1.6112712111K. Rudomina2.20101114133WSep 17 · 18:05D. Solilo1.809890M. Kolek1.911111113LSep 17 · 16:55A. Mugowski2.63711117113M. Kolek1.4411991192
Upcoming Matches
A. Daniel
Sep 18 · 21:00A. Daniel1.28M. Woskowicz3.50—Sep 19 · 03:25A. Daniel1.44G. Poliniewicz2.63—Sep 19 · 04:55A. Daniel1.44D. Kostal2.63—Sep 19 · 06:05A. Daniel2.20M. Jadczyk1.61—Sep 19 · 07:20A. Daniel—J. Stecyszyn——Sep 19 · 08:30A. Daniel2.50D. Wederlich1.50—Sep 19 · 09:20A. Daniel1.44G. Poliniewicz2.63—Sep 19 · 10:00A. Daniel—D. Kostal——Sep 19 · 11:15A. Daniel—J. Stecyszyn——Sep 19 · 12:30A. Daniel2.50D. Wederlich1.50—
M. Kolek
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