TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13154895
Played Sep 19Finished
Piotr Maruszak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711117411––
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Maruszak above · Arkadiusz Mugowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 70 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Arkadiusz Mugowski at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Maruszak 8–6 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:02What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Maruszak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Maruszak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maruszak 1345 vs Mugowski 1347
Mugowski
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maruszak 20% vs Mugowski 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maruszak 30% vs Mugowski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maruszak +1 · Mugowski -3
Mugowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maruszak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaruszak 1.73 / Mugowski 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Maruszak)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13154895
Maruszak1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 30 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Mugowski2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 179 of 435
Down 0–1, comes back26% 69 of 263
Down 0–2, comes back15% 21 of 142
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaruszak5wins
AwayMugowski5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaruszak100%4 of 4
AwayMugowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maruszak4Mugowski6n = 10Mugowski took 6 of 10
S2Maruszak5Mugowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Maruszak7Mugowski3n = 10Maruszak took 7 of 10
S4Maruszak3Mugowski4n = 7Mugowski took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaruszakMugowskiMaruszak − MugowskiBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.637.1−0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaruszakMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 504 vs 915 / 199747.2%45.8%238 / 504 vs 915 / 1997Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaruszakMaruszak 1.73/Mugowski 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Maruszak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 11:20P. Maruszak3811511113A. Mugowski31611861
LAug 2 · 06:50P. Maruszak4576121192A. Mugowski511111108113
LJan 11 · 05:15P. Maruszak34611891A. Mugowski4011711113
WJan 10 · 08:35P. Maruszak331111113A. Mugowski268990
LJan 2 · 05:55P. Maruszak2261060A. Mugowski341112113
WDec 20 · 09:45P. Maruszak4111811113A. Mugowski33911671
WOct 16 · 17:45P. Maruszak48411118143A. Mugowski50118811122
WAug 24 · 12:45P. Maruszak341111123A. Mugowski2486100
LAug 24 · 08:45P. Maruszak391011991A. Mugowski4012611113
LApr 12 · 19:45P. Maruszak32751191A. Mugowski4211119113
P. Maruszak10
LSep 19 · 23:45P. Maruszak1.913530A. Pilch1.801111113WSep 19 · 21:00P. Maruszak1.8311133113B. Sulkowski1.838111181LSep 19 · 19:40A. Wos1.44121156113P. Maruszak2.63106111162LSep 19 · 18:50B. Sulkowski1.8311117113P. Maruszak1.83981151LSep 19 · 18:05P. Maruszak2.75811641R. Chrzescian1.4011811113LSep 19 · 16:30P. Maruszak2.5012113322P. Blocho1.501061111113LSep 19 · 15:45M. Woskowicz1.671181011113P. Maruszak2.1091112682LSep 19 · 24:35A. Pilch—1113113P. Maruszak—51140LSep 18 · 22:55K. Klocek2.051111113P. Maruszak1.669990WSep 18 · 22:15M. Skorski2.407790P. Maruszak1.501111113
A. Mugowski10
LSep 19 · 22:10B. Sulkowski1.8311115113A. Mugowski1.83781161LSep 19 · 21:25M. Woskowicz1.83141011113A. Mugowski1.831212881LSep 19 · 19:40A. Mugowski1.8691090P. Krukar1.831112113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Mugowski1.5761111113A. Eliasz2.20114891LSep 19 · 17:20A. Mugowski—991141A. Pilch—11117113WSep 19 · 16:15W. Gluszek2.256450A. Mugowski1.571111113WSep 19 · 15:25A. Mugowski1.581161114123D. Kotwica2.20811816102LSep 18 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.301111113A. Mugowski3.406860WSep 17 · 22:55K. Rudomina1.61109111182A. Mugowski2.20121163113LSep 17 · 22:10M. Lukaszewski1.80115911113A. Mugowski1.9181111672
Upcoming Matches
P. Maruszak
A. Mugowski
Sep 20 · 24:35A. Mugowski1.73A. Pilch2.00—Sep 20 · 15:25A. Mugowski—D. Kotwica——Sep 20 · 16:55A. Mugowski—P. Krukar——Sep 20 · 18:10A. Mugowski—A. Eliasz——Sep 20 · 19:20A. Mugowski—W. Gluszek——Sep 20 · 20:30A. Mugowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 20 · 21:30A. Mugowski—D. Kotwica——Sep 20 · 21:55A. Mugowski—P. Krukar——Sep 20 · 23:20A. Mugowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 21 · 24:10A. Mugowski—W. Gluszek——
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