TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13154894
Played Sep 19Finished
Piotr Maruszak
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311511311––––
Aleksander Pilch
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:01 and never touched — 66.8% is still 66.8%
Graded at full timeAleksander Pilch to win
66.8%
66.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Maruszak above · Aleksander Pilch below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 44 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Aleksander Pilch at 66.8%
44 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Maruszak 0–2 Aleksander Pilch Piotr Maruszak has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:01What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pilch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Maruszak 1316 vs Pilch 1320
Pilch
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maruszak 20% vs Pilch 60%
Pilch
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maruszak 30% vs Pilch 50%
Pilch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maruszak -1 · Pilch -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maruszak) · live re-read · sealed at 33% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maruszak form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaruszak 1.91 / Pilch 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Maruszak)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13154894
Maruszak1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 21 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Pilch1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMaruszak0wins
AwayPilch2wins
Pilch leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away2
These 2 meetings
MetricMaruszakPilchM − PBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match15.534.0−18.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaruszakPilchBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 506 vs 9 / 1747%52.9%238 / 506 vs 9 / 17Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaruszakMaruszak 1.91/Pilch 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Maruszak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pilch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 19 · 23:45P. Maruszak113530A. Pilch331111113
LSep 19 · 24:35P. Maruszak2051140A. Pilch351113113
P. Maruszak10
LSep 20 · 24:10M. Woskowicz1.8311611113P. Maruszak1.83911451LSep 19 · 22:55P. Maruszak1.73871141A. Mugowski2.0011117113WSep 19 · 21:00P. Maruszak1.8311133113B. Sulkowski1.838111181LSep 19 · 19:40A. Wos1.44121156113P. Maruszak2.63106111162LSep 19 · 18:50B. Sulkowski1.8311117113P. Maruszak1.83981151LSep 19 · 18:05P. Maruszak2.75811641R. Chrzescian1.4011811113LSep 19 · 16:30P. Maruszak2.5012113322P. Blocho1.501061111113LSep 19 · 15:45M. Woskowicz1.671181011113P. Maruszak2.1091112682LSep 19 · 24:35A. Pilch—1113113P. Maruszak—51140LSep 18 · 22:55K. Klocek2.051111113P. Maruszak1.669990
A. Pilch10
LSep 20 · 24:35A. Pilch2.0012890A. Mugowski1.731411113LSep 19 · 22:35A. Pilch2.20119841B. Sulkowski1.6161111113WSep 19 · 21:50M. Woskowicz1.671081171A. Pilch2.1012117113WSep 19 · 20:05A. Eliasz—11711162A. Pilch—311311113LSep 19 · 19:20D. Kotwica2.151111113A. Pilch1.639860WSep 19 · 17:20A. Mugowski—991141A. Pilch—11117113WSep 19 · 16:35P. Krukar—81112972A. Pilch—1191011113LSep 19 · 15:00W. Gluszek—11811113A. Pilch—911951WSep 19 · 24:35A. Pilch—1113113P. Maruszak—51140LSep 18 · 23:45K. Klocek—1111113A. Pilch—6840
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