TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13158977
Played Sep 20Finished
Aleksander Pilch
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214811911––––
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAleksander Pilch above · Arkadiusz Mugowski below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 65 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Arkadiusz Mugowski at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Aleksander Pilch 1–0 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Pilch beat Mugowski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:06What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mugowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pilch 1320 vs Mugowski 1360
Mugowski
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pilch 60% vs Mugowski 40%
Pilch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pilch 60% vs Mugowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pilch +1 · Mugowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Mugowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPilch 2.00 / Mugowski 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Mugowski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13158977
Pilch2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Mugowski1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 92 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it79% 72 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePilch1wins
AwayMugowski0wins
Pilch leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPilchMugowskiP − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match40.033.0+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPilchMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime9 / 17 vs 916 / 199852.9%45.9%9 / 17 vs 916 / 1998Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiPilch 2.00/Mugowski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 19 · 17:20A. Pilch4011117113A. Mugowski33991141
A. Pilch10
WSep 19 · 23:45P. Maruszak1.913530A. Pilch1.801111113LSep 19 · 22:35A. Pilch2.20119841B. Sulkowski1.6161111113WSep 19 · 21:50M. Woskowicz1.671081171A. Pilch2.1012117113WSep 19 · 20:05A. Eliasz—11711162A. Pilch—311311113LSep 19 · 19:20D. Kotwica2.151111113A. Pilch1.639860WSep 19 · 17:20A. Mugowski—991141A. Pilch—11117113WSep 19 · 16:35P. Krukar—81112972A. Pilch—1191011113LSep 19 · 15:00W. Gluszek—11811113A. Pilch—911951WSep 19 · 24:35A. Pilch—1113113P. Maruszak—51140LSep 18 · 23:45K. Klocek—1111113A. Pilch—6840
A. Mugowski10
WSep 19 · 22:55P. Maruszak1.73871141A. Mugowski2.0011117113LSep 19 · 22:10B. Sulkowski1.8311115113A. Mugowski1.83781161LSep 19 · 21:25M. Woskowicz1.83141011113A. Mugowski1.831212881LSep 19 · 19:40A. Mugowski1.8691090P. Krukar1.831112113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Mugowski1.5761111113A. Eliasz2.20114891LSep 19 · 17:20A. Mugowski—991141A. Pilch—11117113WSep 19 · 16:15W. Gluszek2.256450A. Mugowski1.571111113WSep 19 · 15:25A. Mugowski1.581161114123D. Kotwica2.20811816102LSep 18 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.301111113A. Mugowski3.406860WSep 17 · 22:55K. Rudomina1.61109111182A. Mugowski2.20121163113
Upcoming Matches
A. Pilch
Nothing scheduled
A. Mugowski
Sep 20 · 15:25A. Mugowski—D. Kotwica——Sep 20 · 16:55A. Mugowski—P. Krukar——Sep 20 · 18:10A. Mugowski—A. Eliasz——Sep 20 · 19:20A. Mugowski—W. Gluszek——Sep 20 · 20:30A. Mugowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 20 · 21:30A. Mugowski—D. Kotwica——Sep 20 · 21:55A. Mugowski—P. Krukar——Sep 20 · 23:20A. Mugowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 21 · 24:10A. Mugowski—W. Gluszek——
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