TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Piotr Krukar
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311811411116911
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
1.60
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:34 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
1311811411116911
H2H Piotr Krukar 1–0 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:34What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Mugowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Krukar 1088 vs Mugowski 1398
Mugowski
Correct
both rated, 310 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krukar 20% vs Mugowski 60%
Mugowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krukar 20% vs Mugowski 60%
Mugowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krukar +1 · Mugowski +3
Mugowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Mugowski) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krukar form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrukar 2.10 / Mugowski 1.60
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Mugowski)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13161713
Krukar2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Mugowski1.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 96 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it94% 48 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it80% 75 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKrukar1wins
AwayMugowski0wins
Krukar leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKrukarMugowskiK − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.028.0+6.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrukarMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime2 / 10 vs 917 / 199920%45.9%2 / 10 vs 917 / 1999Avg sets wonper match1.61.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiKrukar 2.10/Mugowski 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 19 · 19:40P. Krukar341112113A. Mugowski2891090
P. Krukar10
WSep 20 · 18:30D. Kotwica2.10661131P. Krukar1.6011118113LSep 20 · 17:45K. Kostyk1.6081111113P. Krukar2.20118821WSep 20 · 15:50P. Krukar1.541113113A. Eliasz2.2541160LSep 20 · 24:10D. Kotwica2.2011411113P. Krukar1.58311981LSep 19 · 23:45P. Krukar1.76911361P. Staniszewski1.9511911113LSep 19 · 22:55P. Krukar1.73912871A. Eliasz1.98111011113LSep 19 · 21:05P. Krukar1.381011611102W. Gluszek2.60126112123WSep 19 · 19:40A. Mugowski1.8691090P. Krukar1.831112113LSep 19 · 18:55W. Gluszek2.90691111113P. Krukar1.3511115662LSep 19 · 18:10P. Krukar1.587790D. Kotwica2.251111113
A. Mugowski10
WSep 20 · 18:10A. Eliasz2.5091141192A. Mugowski1.44118115113WSep 20 · 15:25D. Kotwica2.10115413112A. Mugowski1.659111111133WSep 20 · 24:35A. Pilch2.0012890A. Mugowski1.731411113WSep 19 · 22:55P. Maruszak1.73871141A. Mugowski2.0011117113LSep 19 · 22:10B. Sulkowski1.8311115113A. Mugowski1.83781161LSep 19 · 21:25M. Woskowicz1.83141011113A. Mugowski1.831212881LSep 19 · 19:40A. Mugowski1.8691090P. Krukar1.831112113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Mugowski1.5761111113A. Eliasz2.20114891LSep 19 · 17:20A. Mugowski—991141A. Pilch—11117113WSep 19 · 16:15W. Gluszek2.256450A. Mugowski1.571111113
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