TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113911113118––
Piotr Krukar
Away
1.76
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:34 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
67 points played in total.
Set by set
113911113118––
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 1–1 Piotr Krukar Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Mugowski beat Krukar 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:34What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (52%)
Krukar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1413 vs Krukar 1183
Mugowski
Correct
both rated, 230 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 80% vs Krukar 60%
Mugowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 70% vs Krukar 40%
Mugowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski -1 · Krukar +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krukar) · live re-read · sealed at 37% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 1.90 / Krukar 1.76
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krukar)+2.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13161708
Mugowski1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 177 of 430
Down 0–1, comes back26% 68 of 259
Down 0–2, comes back15% 21 of 141
Krukar1.76
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMugowski1wins
AwayKrukar1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricMugowskiKrukarM − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match39.039.5−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiKrukarBasisWin rate · lifetime920 / 2000 vs 4 / 1446%28.6%920 / 2000 vs 4 / 14Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrukarMugowski 1.90/Krukar 1.76
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krukar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 20 · 16:55A. Mugowski501111116113P. Krukar4513841192
LSep 19 · 19:40A. Mugowski2891090P. Krukar341112113
A. Mugowski10
LSep 20 · 21:30A. Mugowski1.70118111082D. Kotwica2.00511912113WSep 20 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.52961111132A. Mugowski2.37111158153WSep 20 · 19:20A. Mugowski1.5411511113W. Gluszek2.25911781WSep 20 · 18:10A. Eliasz2.5091141192A. Mugowski1.44118115113WSep 20 · 16:55P. Krukar2.1013841192A. Mugowski1.601111116113WSep 20 · 15:25D. Kotwica2.10115413112A. Mugowski1.659111111133WSep 20 · 24:35A. Pilch2.0012890A. Mugowski1.731411113WSep 19 · 22:55P. Maruszak1.73871141A. Mugowski2.0011117113LSep 19 · 22:10B. Sulkowski1.8311115113A. Mugowski1.83781161LSep 19 · 21:25M. Woskowicz1.83141011113A. Mugowski1.831212881
P. Krukar10
LSep 20 · 22:35P. Krukar2.2061120K. Kostyk1.571111143WSep 20 · 20:05P. Krukar1.301111113W. Gluszek3.106760WSep 20 · 18:30D. Kotwica2.10661131P. Krukar1.6011118113LSep 20 · 17:45K. Kostyk1.6081111113P. Krukar2.20118821LSep 20 · 16:55P. Krukar2.1013841192A. Mugowski1.601111116113WSep 20 · 15:50P. Krukar1.541113113A. Eliasz2.2541160LSep 20 · 24:10D. Kotwica2.2011411113P. Krukar1.58311981LSep 19 · 23:45P. Krukar1.76911361P. Staniszewski1.9511911113LSep 19 · 22:55P. Krukar1.73912871A. Eliasz1.98111011113LSep 19 · 21:05P. Krukar1.381011611102W. Gluszek2.60126112123
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