TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Kamil Kostyk
Home
1.52
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9116111151181315
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
2.37
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:34 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
100 points played in total.
Set by set
9116111151181315
H2H Kamil Kostyk 3–4 Arkadiusz Mugowski Kamil Kostyk has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:34What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (61%)
Kostyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1416 vs Mugowski 1417
Mugowski
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 40% vs Mugowski 100%
Mugowski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 40% vs Mugowski 70%
Mugowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk -1 · Mugowski +6
Mugowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kostyk) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 1.52 / Mugowski 2.37
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Kostyk)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13161710
Kostyk1.52
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 49 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Mugowski2.37
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 177 of 430
Down 0–1, comes back26% 68 of 259
Down 0–2, comes back15% 21 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKostyk3wins
AwayMugowski4wins
1 of 7 to a deciderMugowski leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKostyk75%3 of 4
AwayMugowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk4Mugowski3n = 7Kostyk took 4 of 7
S2Kostyk2Mugowski5n = 7Mugowski took 5 of 7
S3Kostyk4Mugowski3n = 7Kostyk took 4 of 7
S4Kostyk2Mugowski1n = 3Kostyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricKostykMugowskiK − MBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match34.933.4+1.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 459 vs 919 / 199949.7%46%228 / 459 vs 919 / 1999Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KostykKostyk 1.52/Mugowski 2.37
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Kostyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJan 18 · 15:25K. Kostyk36119791A. Mugowski4291111113
WNov 23 · 12:30K. Kostyk4211911113A. Mugowski29211791
LNov 23 · 06:45K. Kostyk2881190A. Mugowski351113113
WOct 18 · 19:05K. Kostyk341112113A. Mugowski2471070
LSep 26 · 11:25K. Kostyk259880A. Mugowski331111113
WSep 26 · 03:00K. Kostyk351211123A. Mugowski26106100
LSep 24 · 15:25K. Kostyk4458111282A. Mugowski451111210113
K. Kostyk10
LSep 20 · 18:55K. Kostyk1.3281141192A. Eliasz3.05118119113WSep 20 · 17:45K. Kostyk1.6081111113P. Krukar2.20118821LSep 20 · 16:15K. Kostyk1.29971171D. Kotwica3.3011117113WSep 20 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.231191111113W. Gluszek3.1591161362LSep 15 · 23:20L. Pietraszko1.831116113K. Kostyk1.8361440WSep 15 · 22:35B. Kwodawski2.50815111172K. Kostyk1.50111736113LSep 15 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.506670D. Solilo1.501111113LSep 15 · 21:00A. Linek1.9112312113K. Kostyk1.8010111091LSep 15 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.91741111122L. Pietraszko1.80111189143WSep 15 · 18:50K. Kostyk2.1081112113J. Witkowski1.671191061
A. Mugowski10
WSep 20 · 19:20A. Mugowski1.5411511113W. Gluszek2.25911781WSep 20 · 18:10A. Eliasz2.5091141192A. Mugowski1.44118115113WSep 20 · 16:55P. Krukar2.1013841192A. Mugowski1.601111116113WSep 20 · 15:25D. Kotwica2.10115413112A. Mugowski1.659111111133WSep 20 · 24:35A. Pilch2.0012890A. Mugowski1.731411113WSep 19 · 22:55P. Maruszak1.73871141A. Mugowski2.0011117113LSep 19 · 22:10B. Sulkowski1.8311115113A. Mugowski1.83781161LSep 19 · 21:25M. Woskowicz1.83141011113A. Mugowski1.831212881LSep 19 · 19:40A. Mugowski1.8691090P. Krukar1.831112113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Mugowski1.5761111113A. Eliasz2.20114891
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