TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129899
Played Sep 15Finished
Kamil Kostyk
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111191210116––
Jakub Witkowski
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:03 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Witkowski to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKamil Kostyk above · Jakub Witkowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 78 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jakub Witkowski at 66.1%
78 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kostyk 1–3 Jakub Witkowski Kamil Kostyk has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:03What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Witkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Witkowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1470 vs Witkowski 1481
Witkowski
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 80% vs Witkowski 40%
Kostyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 60% vs Witkowski 40%
Kostyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk +4 · Witkowski -1
Kostyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Witkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Witkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 2.10 / Witkowski 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Witkowski)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13129899
Kostyk2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 47 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Witkowski1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 72 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it85% 49 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKostyk1wins
AwayWitkowski3wins
3 of 4 to a deciderWitkowski leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKostyk25%1 of 4
AwayWitkowskin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk4Witkowski0n = 4Kostyk took 4 of 4
S2Kostyk0Witkowski4n = 4Witkowski took 4 of 4
S3Kostyk1Witkowski3n = 4Witkowski took 3 of 4
S4Kostyk2Witkowski2n = 4split evenly
S5Kostyk1Witkowski2n = 3Witkowski took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKostykWitkowskiK − WBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match45.247.8−2.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykWitkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 449 vs 403 / 86650.1%46.5%225 / 449 vs 403 / 866Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WitkowskiKostyk 2.10/Witkowski 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Witkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kostyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 14 · 15:00K. Kostyk48118111172J. Witkowski49511913113
LDec 21 · 17:25K. Kostyk401412951J. Witkowski48121411113
WNov 10 · 02:10K. Kostyk541191111123J. Witkowski47711136102
LNov 9 · 23:45K. Kostyk39114211112J. Witkowski47411118133
K. Kostyk10
LSep 15 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.91741111122L. Pietraszko1.80111189143WSep 15 · 17:40K. Kostyk1.5071111113B. Kwodawski2.50119891WSep 15 · 16:05K. Kostyk1.671111123J. Lamperski2.1066100WSep 15 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.831111113A. Linek1.836870WSep 15 · 24:10K. Staszczyk1.6791113972K. Kostyk2.101191111113LSep 14 · 23:45K. Kostyk2.2511113892D. Solilo1.57861111113LSep 14 · 22:55K. Kostyk1.44631161J. Lamperski2.6311114113WSep 14 · 21:00K. Kostyk1.4413119143A. Linek2.4511711121WSep 14 · 20:05A. Linek2.2511611772K. Kostyk1.57711911113LSep 14 · 19:15K. Staszczyk1.6151111113K. Kostyk2.20119821
J. Witkowski10
WSep 15 · 19:40J. Lamperski2.381111711112J. Witkowski1.53413117133LSep 15 · 18:05J. Witkowski1.91117671L. Pietraszko1.8061111113WSep 15 · 16:30J. Witkowski1.50911812113A. Linek2.50116111072WSep 15 · 15:45B. Kwodawski3.259820J. Witkowski1.331111113LSep 15 · 14:40A. Sobel2.00111011113J. Witkowski1.73912761LSep 15 · 13:30J. Witkowski1.39119581K. Rudomina2.7581111113LSep 15 · 12:15J. Zochniak2.05112811163J. Witkowski1.66711117142WSep 15 · 11:00B. Czerwinski1.8591281192J. Witkowski1.851110118113WSep 15 · 09:25W. Iwasyszyn4.40117101172J. Witkowski1.15711125113LSep 14 · 20:30J. Witkowski1.916970K. Staszczyk1.801111113
Upcoming Matches
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