TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129904
Played Sep 15Finished
Bartosz Kwodawski
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811211––––
Jakub Witkowski
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:02 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Witkowski to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBartosz Kwodawski above · Jakub Witkowski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 52 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Jakub Witkowski at 63.1%
52 points played in total.
H2H Bartosz Kwodawski 1–1 Jakub Witkowski Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:02What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Witkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kwodawski 1339 vs Witkowski 1468
Witkowski
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwodawski 20% vs Witkowski 40%
Witkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwodawski 30% vs Witkowski 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwodawski -2 · Witkowski -3
Witkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Witkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Witkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwodawski 3.25 / Witkowski 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Witkowski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13129904
Kwodawski3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 41 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 66
Witkowski1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 72 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it85% 49 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKwodawski1wins
AwayWitkowski1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKwodawskiWitkowskiK − WBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match35.536.0−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwodawskiWitkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 462 vs 401 / 86342%46.5%194 / 462 vs 401 / 863Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WitkowskiKwodawski 3.25/Witkowski 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.7%
Witkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Witkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WApr 11 · 11:55B. Kwodawski47111211133J. Witkowski386147111
LMar 21 · 10:55B. Kwodawski2471070J. Witkowski341112113
B. Kwodawski10
LSep 15 · 16:55B. Kwodawski2.757670L. Pietraszko1.401111113LSep 5 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski2.40128612113B. Kwodawski1.501011111082LSep 5 · 18:55B. Sulkowski1.5311119113B. Kwodawski2.30671161WSep 5 · 18:10B. Kwodawski3.055111011113A. Lilien1.3111812872LSep 5 · 16:35B. Kwodawski1.639550K. Kufel2.151111113LSep 5 · 15:50J. Michalczyk1.78311812113B. Kwodawski1.93116111042WSep 5 · 14:35J. Przewlocki1.85119881B. Kwodawski1.8551111113LSep 5 · 13:25B. Kwodawski2.90911621M. Minda1.3511911113WSep 5 · 12:10J. Wozniak1.8710650B. Kwodawski1.811211113LSep 5 · 10:55K. Klocek1.9511811113B. Kwodawski1.77911451
J. Witkowski10
WSep 15 · 16:30J. Witkowski1.50911812113A. Linek2.50116111072LSep 15 · 14:40A. Sobel2.00111011113J. Witkowski1.73912761LSep 15 · 13:30J. Witkowski1.39119581K. Rudomina2.7581111113LSep 15 · 12:15J. Zochniak2.05112811163J. Witkowski1.66711117142WSep 15 · 11:00B. Czerwinski1.8591281192J. Witkowski1.851110118113WSep 15 · 09:25W. Iwasyszyn4.40117101172J. Witkowski1.15711125113LSep 14 · 20:30J. Witkowski1.916970K. Staszczyk1.801111113LSep 14 · 18:50J. Witkowski1.445770K. Rudomina2.631111113LSep 14 · 17:40J. Witkowski1.537111081A. Linek2.3811812113LSep 14 · 16:05J. Witkowski1.8065130M. Kolek1.911111153
Upcoming Matches
B. Kwodawski
Sep 15 · 17:40B. Kwodawski2.50K. Kostyk1.50—Sep 15 · 18:30B. Kwodawski1.80J. Lamperski1.91—Sep 15 · 20:05B. Kwodawski1.91A. Linek1.80—Sep 15 · 21:50B. Kwodawski2.75L. Pietraszko1.40—Sep 15 · 22:35B. Kwodawski2.50K. Kostyk1.50—Sep 15 · 23:45B. Kwodawski1.91A. Linek1.80—Sep 16 · 24:35B. Kwodawski3.40D. Solilo1.30—
J. Witkowski
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