TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129902
Played Sep 15Finished
Jakub Witkowski
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111168111210117
Adam Linek
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Witkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Witkowski above · Adam Linek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 96 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jakub Witkowski at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Witkowski 5–3 Adam Linek Adam Linek has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:03What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Witkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Witkowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Witkowski 1477 vs Linek 1514
Linek
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Witkowski 40% vs Linek 60%
Linek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Witkowski 30% vs Linek 70%
Linek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Witkowski +1 · Linek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Witkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Linek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWitkowski 1.50 / Linek 2.50
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Witkowski)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13129902
Witkowski1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 72 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it85% 49 of 58
Linek2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 151 of 363
Down 0–1, comes back27% 55 of 203
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeWitkowski5wins
AwayLinek3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderWitkowski leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWitkowski100%4 of 4
AwayLinek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Witkowski4Linek4n = 8split evenly
S2Witkowski4Linek4n = 8split evenly
S3Witkowski4Linek4n = 8split evenly
S4Witkowski3Linek3n = 6split evenly
S5Witkowski3Linek1n = 4Witkowski took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricWitkowskiLinekW − LBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match38.039.2−1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWitkowskiLinekBasisWin rate · lifetime402 / 864 vs 786 / 168146.5%46.8%402 / 864 vs 786 / 1681Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WitkowskiWitkowski 1.50/Linek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Witkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Witkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LFeb 16 · 10:50J. Witkowski2468100A. Linek341111123
WJan 28 · 17:55J. Witkowski3911512113A. Linek349111041
WDec 9 · 12:00J. Witkowski38211311113A. Linek4311611872
LOct 7 · 01:00J. Witkowski45611111252A. Linek52118814113
WOct 6 · 22:35J. Witkowski341211113A. Linek2610790
WSep 11 · 09:30J. Witkowski51129118113A. Linek43101141172
LApr 18 · 11:00J. Witkowski27411391A. Linek3711411113
WApr 17 · 19:20J. Witkowski46119411113A. Linek4591111862
J. Witkowski10
WSep 15 · 15:45B. Kwodawski3.259820J. Witkowski1.331111113LSep 15 · 14:40A. Sobel2.00111011113J. Witkowski1.73912761LSep 15 · 13:30J. Witkowski1.39119581K. Rudomina2.7581111113LSep 15 · 12:15J. Zochniak2.05112811163J. Witkowski1.66711117142WSep 15 · 11:00B. Czerwinski1.8591281192J. Witkowski1.851110118113WSep 15 · 09:25W. Iwasyszyn4.40117101172J. Witkowski1.15711125113LSep 14 · 20:30J. Witkowski1.916970K. Staszczyk1.801111113LSep 14 · 18:50J. Witkowski1.445770K. Rudomina2.631111113LSep 14 · 17:40J. Witkowski1.537111081A. Linek2.3811812113LSep 14 · 16:05J. Witkowski1.8065130M. Kolek1.911111153
A. Linek10
WSep 15 · 17:20J. Lamperski3.0010790A. Linek1.361211113LSep 15 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.831111113A. Linek1.836870WSep 14 · 23:20K. Staszczyk1.40118119112A. Linek2.75711711133WSep 14 · 22:35D. Solilo1.57111113692A. Linek2.25961511113WSep 14 · 22:10A. Linek1.301111113J. Lamperski3.408980LSep 14 · 21:00K. Kostyk1.4413119143A. Linek2.4511711121LSep 14 · 20:05A. Linek2.2511611772K. Kostyk1.57711911113WSep 14 · 18:30M. Kolek1.6188111192A. Linek2.20111153113WSep 14 · 17:40J. Witkowski1.537111081A. Linek2.3811812113WSep 14 · 16:55A. Linek3.00711115113K. Staszczyk1.3611691162
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