TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129906
Played Sep 15Finished
Artur Sobel
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191012117116––
Jakub Witkowski
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:02 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Witkowski to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
1191012117116––
H2H Artur Sobel 2–4 Jakub Witkowski Artur Sobel has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:02What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Witkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Witkowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobel 1581 vs Witkowski 1477
Sobel
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobel 60% vs Witkowski 40%
Sobel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobel 70% vs Witkowski 40%
Sobel
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobel +1 · Witkowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Witkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Witkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobel 2.00 / Witkowski 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Witkowski)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13129906
Sobel2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 84 of 192
Down 0–1, comes back25% 27 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Witkowski1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 72 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it85% 49 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSobel2wins
AwayWitkowski4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderWitkowski leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobeln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayWitkowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobel1Witkowski5n = 6Witkowski took 5 of 6
S2Sobel3Witkowski3n = 6split evenly
S3Sobel1Witkowski5n = 6Witkowski took 5 of 6
S4Sobel2Witkowski1n = 3Sobel took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away350%
These 6 meetings
MetricSobelWitkowskiS − WBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match35.838.5−2.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobelWitkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime641 / 1190 vs 401 / 86253.9%46.5%641 / 1190 vs 401 / 862Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WitkowskiSobel 2.00/Witkowski 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Witkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sobel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 14 · 13:05A. Sobel528111111113J. Witkowski4411881342
LFeb 16 · 16:25A. Sobel268990J. Witkowski331111113
LFeb 16 · 14:05A. Sobel2688100J. Witkowski341111123
LDec 26 · 13:40A. Sobel229580J. Witkowski331111113
LDec 9 · 13:40A. Sobel49111181182J. Witkowski52138119113
WNov 24 · 17:15A. Sobel4011117113J. Witkowski35781191
A. Sobel10
WSep 15 · 13:05A. Sobel1.9511119113J. Zochniak1.70971121LSep 15 · 11:50A. Sobel2.0099110B. Czerwinski1.711111133WSep 15 · 10:10A. Sobel1.3211911113W. Iwasyszyn3.10211761LSep 15 · 09:00A. Sobel1.68121111872K. Rudomina2.051013311113WSep 15 · 07:40B. Wisniewski3.5061111352A. Sobel1.23117411113WSep 15 · 06:55W. Iwasyszyn3.308650A. Sobel1.301111113WSep 15 · 06:05A. Sobel1.5411711113R. Stapor2.25611391WSep 15 · 04:30A. Sobel1.361181011123K. Klocek2.75611124102WSep 15 · 03:50J. Glanowski2.00811961A. Sobel1.7011911113LSep 14 · 14:40A. Sobel1.758117121J. Glanowski1.9511811143
J. Witkowski10
LSep 15 · 13:30J. Witkowski1.39119581K. Rudomina2.7581111113LSep 15 · 12:15J. Zochniak2.05112811163J. Witkowski1.66711117142WSep 15 · 11:00B. Czerwinski1.8591281192J. Witkowski1.851110118113WSep 15 · 09:25W. Iwasyszyn4.40117101172J. Witkowski1.15711125113LSep 14 · 20:30J. Witkowski1.916970K. Staszczyk1.801111113LSep 14 · 18:50J. Witkowski1.445770K. Rudomina2.631111113LSep 14 · 17:40J. Witkowski1.537111081A. Linek2.3811812113LSep 14 · 16:05J. Witkowski1.8065130M. Kolek1.911111153WSep 14 · 15:00J. Witkowski1.61511913113K. Kostyk2.20118111172WSep 14 · 13:55W. Iwasyszyn3.851251161J. Witkowski1.20101113113
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