TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130866
Played Sep 15Finished
Artur Sobel
Home
1.54
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116711113119––
Rafal Stapor
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Sobel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
116711113119––
H2H Artur Sobel 5–7 Rafal Stapor Artur Sobel has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Sobel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobel 1588 vs Stapor 1415
Sobel
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobel 80% vs Stapor 40%
Sobel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobel 60% vs Stapor 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobel +2 · Stapor +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Sobel) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobel 1.54 / Stapor 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Sobel)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13130866
Sobel1.54
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 170 of 293
Up 2–0, closes it94% 72 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it78% 120 of 154
Stapor2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 98 of 272
Down 0–1, comes back18% 30 of 171
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobel4wins
AwayStapor6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobel60%3 of 5
AwayStapor80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobel5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S2Sobel2Stapor8n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S3Sobel5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S4Sobel5Stapor4n = 9Sobel took 5 of 9
S5Sobel2Stapor2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobelStaporSobel − StaporBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.441.1+1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobelStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime641 / 1190 vs 661 / 117153.9%56.5%641 / 1190 vs 661 / 1171Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobelSobel 1.54/Stapor 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.8%
Sobel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sobel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 06:05A. Sobel4011711113R. Stapor29611391
LAug 3 · 07:15A. Sobel341061171R. Stapor3712113113
LJul 28 · 04:25A. Sobel49107121192R. Stapor521211108113
LJul 27 · 07:40A. Sobel341181051R. Stapor3841112113
WJul 21 · 06:05A. Sobel4111118113R. Stapor27861121
LJul 21 · 03:50A. Sobel48119116112R. Stapor50911611133
LJul 14 · 12:40A. Sobel29101180R. Stapor361213113
WJul 13 · 09:25A. Sobel501161111113R. Stapor4551113792
WJun 30 · 05:15A. Sobel6012111411123R. Stapor53146167102
LJun 30 · 03:00A. Sobel3910811101R. Stapor4412119123
A. Sobel10
WSep 15 · 04:30A. Sobel1.361181011123K. Klocek2.75611124102WSep 15 · 03:50J. Glanowski2.00811961A. Sobel1.7011911113LSep 14 · 14:40A. Sobel1.758117121J. Glanowski1.9511811143WSep 14 · 13:05A. Sobel2.108111111113J. Witkowski1.6611881342WSep 14 · 11:50A. Sobel1.3011113113J. Przewlocki3.00661151WSep 14 · 10:10A. Sobel1.2911911113W. Iwasyszyn3.10811641WSep 14 · 09:00A. Sobel1.301111113F. Krcil3.055960LSep 14 · 07:40A. Sobel2.75711471M. Malachowski1.3711911113LSep 14 · 06:25A. Sobel2.70261191L. Jarocki1.4111118113LSep 14 · 05:15A. Sobel3.709590J. Kuzmicz1.221111113
R. Stapor10
WSep 15 · 04:55J. Glanowski1.678350R. Stapor2.001111113LSep 15 · 03:25B. Wisniewski2.65111011113R. Stapor1.38912641WSep 14 · 07:40B. Wisniewski2.4061070R. Stapor1.501112113LSep 14 · 06:55W. Iwasyszyn1.85161187113R. Stapor1.80142111182LSep 14 · 06:05R. Stapor1.6091181162J. Przewlocki2.15118116113LSep 14 · 04:30R. Stapor2.201041191B. Czerwinski1.5712118113WSep 14 · 03:50F. Krcil2.415111171R. Stapor1.4611813113WSep 14 · 24:10D. Kotwica2.30146771R. Stapor1.52121111113LSep 13 · 23:45R. Stapor1.9048111162A. Linek1.75111159113WSep 13 · 22:55R. Stapor1.9711311113K. Rudomina1.69611761
Upcoming Matches
A. Sobel
Sep 15 · 06:55A. Sobel1.30W. Iwasyszyn3.30—Sep 15 · 07:40A. Sobel1.23B. Wisniewski3.50—Sep 15 · 09:00A. Sobel1.55K. Rudomina2.19—Sep 15 · 10:10A. Sobel1.28W. Iwasyszyn3.10—Sep 15 · 11:50A. Sobel2.00B. Czerwinski1.71—Sep 15 · 13:05A. Sobel2.03J. Zochniak1.64—Sep 15 · 14:40A. Sobel2.37J. Witkowski1.47—
R. Stapor
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