TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129328
Played Sep 15Finished
Bartlomiej Wisniewski
Home
2.65
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191012116114––
Rafal Stapor
Away
1.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:41 and never touched — 61.4% is still 61.4%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
61.4%
61.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
1191012116114––
H2H Bartlomiej Wisniewski 9–26 Rafal Stapor Bartlomiej Wisniewski has won 9 of their 35 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 20h before this match
Stapor beat Wisniewski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:41What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.38 (66%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-26 in 35
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 17 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wisniewski 1240 vs Stapor 1421
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wisniewski 40% vs Stapor 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wisniewski 40% vs Stapor 60%
Stapor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wisniewski -3 · Stapor +1
Wisniewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (40%) is below what odds imply (72%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWisniewski 2.65 / Stapor 1.38
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Stapor)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13129328
Wisniewski2.65
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 163 of 437
Down 0–1, comes back15% 37 of 252
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 137
Stapor1.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 389 of 616
Up 2–0, closes it96% 194 of 203
Up 1–0, closes it81% 295 of 365
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWisniewski3wins
AwayStapor7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWisniewskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStapor87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wisniewski2Stapor8n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S2Wisniewski6Stapor4n = 10Wisniewski took 6 of 10
S3Wisniewski2Stapor8n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S4Wisniewski2Stapor5n = 7Stapor took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricWisniewskiStaporW − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.239.3−8.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWisniewskiStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime895 / 1883 vs 660 / 116847.5%56.5%895 / 1883 vs 660 / 1168Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporWisniewski 2.65/Stapor 1.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.2%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wisniewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 07:40B. Wisniewski2361070R. Stapor341112113
WSep 11 · 07:20B. Wisniewski3811113133R. Stapor398911111
LJul 18 · 11:50B. Wisniewski351111491R. Stapor4313811113
LJul 13 · 20:05B. Wisniewski187560R. Stapor331111113
LJun 16 · 15:00B. Wisniewski25411551R. Stapor3911611113
LJun 3 · 10:55B. Wisniewski206590R. Stapor331111113
WJun 1 · 14:15B. Wisniewski4111118113R. Stapor36791191
LMay 31 · 09:00B. Wisniewski3912116101R. Stapor4414711123
LMay 29 · 17:05B. Wisniewski27561151R. Stapor4211119113
WMay 24 · 07:45B. Wisniewski46511145113R. Stapor50118121182
B. Wisniewski10
LSep 15 · 04:10W. Iwasyszyn1.7491111123B. Wisniewski1.901165101LSep 14 · 07:40B. Wisniewski2.4061070R. Stapor1.501112113LSep 14 · 06:30B. Wisniewski1.9581160F. Krcil1.751113113LSep 14 · 05:15B. Wisniewski3.70711691B. Czerwinski1.2111811113WSep 14 · 04:10W. Iwasyszyn1.85168771B. Wisniewski1.85141111113WSep 14 · 03:25B. Wisniewski1.751151011113J. Przewlocki1.9041112552WSep 13 · 14:40B. Wisniewski1.7612811113M. Piecowski1.901011461LSep 13 · 13:05B. Wisniewski1.807111261A. Eliasz1.9111814113LSep 13 · 11:50B. Wisniewski1.861191071M. Lukaszewski1.8091112113LSep 13 · 10:10B. Wisniewski2.00581191M. Sinicki1.6611117113
R. Stapor10
WSep 14 · 07:40B. Wisniewski2.4061070R. Stapor1.501112113LSep 14 · 06:55W. Iwasyszyn1.85161187113R. Stapor1.80142111182LSep 14 · 06:05R. Stapor1.6091181162J. Przewlocki2.15118116113LSep 14 · 04:30R. Stapor2.201041191B. Czerwinski1.5712118113WSep 14 · 03:50F. Krcil2.415111171R. Stapor1.4611813113WSep 14 · 24:10D. Kotwica2.30146771R. Stapor1.52121111113LSep 13 · 23:45R. Stapor1.9048111162A. Linek1.75111159113WSep 13 · 22:55R. Stapor1.9711311113K. Rudomina1.69611761WSep 13 · 21:05R. Stapor1.311111113K. Marchlewski2.954880WSep 13 · 20:05K. Rudomina1.74741171R. Stapor1.9011116113
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