TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159432
Played Sep 19Finished
Dawid Kotwica
Home
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11131161311119––
Wojciech Gluszek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Kotwica to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
11131161311119––
H2H Dawid Kotwica 44–25 Wojciech Gluszek Wojciech Gluszek has won 25 of their 69 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kotwica beat Gluszek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:14What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Gluszek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-25 in 69
Kotwica
Correct
gap of 19 in 69, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotwica 1274 vs Gluszek 1146
Kotwica
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotwica 80% vs Gluszek 40%
Kotwica
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotwica 70% vs Gluszek 40%
Kotwica
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotwica +1 · Gluszek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kotwica)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gluszek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotwica 1.90 / Gluszek 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kotwica)+5.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13159432
Kotwica1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 137 of 387
Down 0–1, comes back19% 42 of 224
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 137
Gluszek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 153 of 277
Up 2–0, closes it94% 75 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it74% 116 of 157
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotwica8wins
AwayGluszek2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKotwica leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotwica100%5 of 5
AwayGluszek40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotwica5Gluszek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kotwica7Gluszek3n = 10Kotwica took 7 of 10
S3Kotwica8Gluszek2n = 10Kotwica took 8 of 10
S4Kotwica4Gluszek3n = 7Kotwica took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotwicaGluszekK − GBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.234.6+5.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotwicaGluszekBasisWin rate · lifetime647 / 1570 vs 839 / 178141.2%47.1%647 / 1570 vs 839 / 1781Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotwicaKotwica 1.90/Gluszek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kotwica · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kotwica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 20:30D. Kotwica4181111113W. Gluszek35118971
LSep 12 · 21:05D. Kotwica35771291W. Gluszek43111110113
WSep 12 · 17:20D. Kotwica331111113W. Gluszek238870
WAug 4 · 22:55D. Kotwica4815148113W. Gluszek4213121161
WAug 4 · 20:05D. Kotwica44111111113W. Gluszek28132761
WJul 5 · 19:40D. Kotwica49117119113W. Gluszek4491161172
WJul 4 · 19:20D. Kotwica331111113W. Gluszek157620
LJun 10 · 18:10D. Kotwica35811791W. Gluszek4011711113
WMay 14 · 18:30D. Kotwica341111123W. Gluszek2798100
WMay 13 · 15:25D. Kotwica50791211113W. Gluszek49111110892
D. Kotwica10
WSep 20 · 24:10D. Kotwica2.2011411113P. Krukar1.58311981WSep 19 · 21:55D. Kotwica2.0511119113P. Staniszewski1.68791191LSep 19 · 21:30D. Kotwica1.66119851A. Eliasz2.0091111113WSep 19 · 20:30W. Gluszek1.83118971D. Kotwica1.8381111113WSep 19 · 19:20D. Kotwica2.151111113A. Pilch1.639860WSep 19 · 18:10P. Krukar1.587790D. Kotwica2.251111113LSep 19 · 16:55A. Eliasz1.87116137113D. Kotwica1.83911111192LSep 19 · 15:25A. Mugowski1.581161114123D. Kotwica2.20811816102WSep 16 · 24:35M. Kowalczyk1.9010111191D. Kotwica1.8012137113WSep 15 · 22:55K. Golaszewski2.106950D. Kotwica1.601111113
W. Gluszek10
LSep 19 · 22:35P. Staniszewski1.7591114123W. Gluszek1.9011312101LSep 19 · 22:15W. Gluszek1.90125751A. Eliasz1.80101111113WSep 19 · 21:05P. Krukar1.381011611102W. Gluszek2.60126112123LSep 19 · 20:30W. Gluszek1.83118971D. Kotwica1.8381111113WSep 19 · 18:55W. Gluszek2.90691111113P. Krukar1.3511115662LSep 19 · 17:45W. Gluszek1.786640A. Eliasz1.931111113LSep 19 · 16:15W. Gluszek2.256450A. Mugowski1.571111113WSep 19 · 15:00W. Gluszek—11811113A. Pilch—911951WSep 17 · 24:10M. Skorski1.8611101271W. Gluszek1.80131210113LSep 16 · 23:45W. Gluszek1.7399130K. Golaszewski1.981111153
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