TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Bartosz Sulkowski
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911711––––
Maciej Kolek
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:31 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBartosz Sulkowski above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 54 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 54.1%
54 points played in total.
H2H Bartosz Sulkowski 30–41 Maciej Kolek Bartosz Sulkowski has won 30 of their 71 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Sulkowski beat Kolek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:31What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-41 in 71
Kolek
Correct
gap of 11 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1571 vs Kolek 1634
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 40% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 60% vs Kolek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski -1 · Kolek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 2.75 / Kolek 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Kolek)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13160066
Sulkowski2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 159 of 482
Down 0–1, comes back17% 47 of 283
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 137
Kolek1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 255 of 420
Up 2–0, closes it94% 87 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it81% 190 of 236
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski4wins
AwayKolek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski50%2 of 4
AwayKolek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S2Sulkowski8Kolek2n = 10Sulkowski took 8 of 10
S3Sulkowski3Kolek7n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S4Sulkowski4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S5Sulkowski2Kolek3n = 5Kolek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiKolekS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.444.1−2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime573 / 1288 vs 720 / 143344.5%50.2%573 / 1288 vs 720 / 1433Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekSulkowski 2.75/Kolek 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 20:05B. Sulkowski4611117173M. Kolek408611151
WSep 18 · 20:30B. Sulkowski4011126113M. Kolek378101181
LSep 17 · 24:10B. Sulkowski4261111592M. Kolek47116811113
LSep 16 · 15:25B. Sulkowski4711117992M. Kolek51991111113
WAug 13 · 12:40B. Sulkowski491211411113M. Kolek4514611682
LAug 12 · 09:25B. Sulkowski351168101M. Kolek4281111123
LAug 8 · 22:55B. Sulkowski34811691M. Kolek3911611113
LAug 8 · 20:30B. Sulkowski43410111172M. Kolek49111278113
WJul 12 · 11:45B. Sulkowski48611119113M. Kolek4611691192
LJul 10 · 10:35B. Sulkowski30314671M. Kolek45111211113
B. Sulkowski10
WSep 20 · 23:45B. Sulkowski2.50911114113P. Blocho1.5011481172LSep 20 · 21:00B. Sulkowski2.25741181L. Pietraszko1.5711116113WSep 20 · 20:05M. Kolek1.408611151B. Sulkowski2.7511117173WSep 20 · 17:20A. Wos1.507850B. Sulkowski2.501111113LSep 20 · 16:30P. Blocho1.5071513123B. Sulkowski2.50111311101WSep 20 · 15:00L. Pietraszko1.675101151B. Sulkowski2.1011127113WSep 19 · 23:20M. Woskowicz1.73611761B. Sulkowski2.0011411113WSep 19 · 22:35A. Pilch2.20119841B. Sulkowski1.6161111113WSep 19 · 22:10B. Sulkowski1.8311115113A. Mugowski1.83781161LSep 19 · 21:00P. Maruszak1.8311133113B. Sulkowski1.838111181
M. Kolek10
WSep 20 · 22:10L. Pietraszko1.80135561M. Kolek1.91111111113WSep 20 · 21:25K. Rudomina2.5061141192M. Kolek1.50116116113LSep 20 · 20:05M. Kolek1.408611151B. Sulkowski2.7511117173WSep 20 · 18:30A. Wos1.8397100M. Kolek1.831111123LSep 20 · 17:40L. Pietraszko1.8011118113M. Kolek1.91981181LSep 20 · 16:55M. Kolek1.4491111972K. Rudomina2.63119911113WSep 20 · 15:45M. Kolek1.611111113P. Blocho2.204830WSep 18 · 21:20P. Maruszak2.63671131M. Kolek1.4411114113LSep 18 · 20:30B. Sulkowski3.0011126113M. Kolek1.368101181WSep 18 · 18:30A. Daniel1.3391151152M. Kolek3.25117117113
Upcoming Matches
B. Sulkowski
Nothing scheduled
M. Kolek
Sep 21 · 24:35M. Kolek1.50P. Blocho2.50—Sep 21 · 15:25M. Kolek—J. Mitas——Sep 21 · 16:05M. Kolek—K. Kostyk——Sep 21 · 17:20M. Kolek—M. Minda——Sep 21 · 18:30M. Kolek—J. Chmielowski——Sep 21 · 19:40M. Kolek—P. Blocho——Sep 21 · 21:00M. Kolek—K. Kostyk——Sep 21 · 22:55M. Kolek—J. Chmielowski——Sep 21 · 23:45M. Kolek—K. Staszczyk——Sep 22 · 24:10M. Kolek—J. Mitas——
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