TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Bartosz Sulkowski
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711411116811––
Lukasz Pietraszko
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:30 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeLukasz Pietraszko to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBartosz Sulkowski above · Lukasz Pietraszko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Lukasz Pietraszko at 55.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Bartosz Sulkowski 7–6 Lukasz Pietraszko Lukasz Pietraszko has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Sulkowski beat Pietraszko 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:30What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pietraszko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1582 vs Pietraszko 1608
Pietraszko
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 60% vs Pietraszko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 70% vs Pietraszko 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski +1 · Pietraszko +3
Pietraszko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Pietraszko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 2.25 / Pietraszko 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Pietraszko)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13160069
Sulkowski2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 159 of 482
Down 0–1, comes back17% 47 of 283
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 137
Pietraszko1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 120 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it93% 51 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it82% 83 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski6wins
AwayPietraszko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSulkowski leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski66.7%4 of 6
AwayPietraszko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski6Pietraszko4n = 10Sulkowski took 6 of 10
S2Sulkowski4Pietraszko6n = 10Pietraszko took 6 of 10
S3Sulkowski7Pietraszko3n = 10Sulkowski took 7 of 10
S4Sulkowski4Pietraszko4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiPietraszkoS − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.936.6+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiPietraszkoBasisWin rate · lifetime573 / 1287 vs 434 / 86044.5%50.5%573 / 1287 vs 434 / 860Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PietraszkoSulkowski 2.25/Pietraszko 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Pietraszko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pietraszko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 15:00B. Sulkowski4111127113L. Pietraszko315101151
WMay 18 · 18:30B. Sulkowski45611125113L. Pietraszko46118101162
LMay 11 · 05:20B. Sulkowski4211511692L. Pietraszko46711611113
WApr 27 · 09:00B. Sulkowski4311811133L. Pietraszko367117111
WApr 13 · 09:00B. Sulkowski351111133L. Pietraszko2458110
LMar 30 · 11:00B. Sulkowski34691271L. Pietraszko43111110113
LMar 2 · 10:00B. Sulkowski33117871L. Pietraszko3851111113
WFeb 23 · 14:30B. Sulkowski3613111113L. Pietraszko371111871
LFeb 23 · 05:30B. Sulkowski2141160L. Pietraszko351113113
WFeb 9 · 17:15B. Sulkowski3961111113L. Pietraszko30118561
B. Sulkowski10
WSep 20 · 20:05M. Kolek1.408611151B. Sulkowski2.7511117173LSep 20 · 19:15K. Rudomina1.801111113B. Sulkowski1.915850WSep 20 · 17:20A. Wos1.507850B. Sulkowski2.501111113LSep 20 · 16:30P. Blocho1.5071513123B. Sulkowski2.50111311101WSep 20 · 15:00L. Pietraszko1.675101151B. Sulkowski2.1011127113WSep 19 · 23:20M. Woskowicz1.73611761B. Sulkowski2.0011411113WSep 19 · 22:35A. Pilch2.20119841B. Sulkowski1.6161111113WSep 19 · 22:10B. Sulkowski1.8311115113A. Mugowski1.83781161LSep 19 · 21:00P. Maruszak1.8311133113B. Sulkowski1.838111181WSep 19 · 20:30B. Sulkowski3.251111311113R. Chrzescian1.3376111372
L. Pietraszko10
WSep 20 · 20:30L. Pietraszko1.801211123K. Rudomina1.91108100WSep 20 · 18:50L. Pietraszko1.671111710123P. Blocho2.10891112102WSep 20 · 17:40L. Pietraszko1.8011118113M. Kolek1.91981181LSep 20 · 16:05L. Pietraszko1.8064130A. Wos1.911111153LSep 20 · 15:00L. Pietraszko1.675101151B. Sulkowski2.1011127113WSep 16 · 24:10L. Pietraszko1.50711711113A. Linek2.5011511872WSep 15 · 23:20L. Pietraszko1.831116113K. Kostyk1.8361440WSep 15 · 21:50L. Pietraszko1.361111113B. Kwodawski3.002850WSep 15 · 21:25L. Pietraszko1.801111123D. Solilo1.9196100WSep 15 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.91741111122L. Pietraszko1.80111189143
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