TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134790
Played Sep 15Finished
Lukasz Pietraszko
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112118115––––
Bartosz Kwodawski
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:17 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeLukasz Pietraszko to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Pietraszko above · Bartosz Kwodawski below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 48 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Lukasz Pietraszko at 69.5%
48 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Pietraszko 13–8 Bartosz Kwodawski Bartosz Kwodawski has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Pietraszko beat Kwodawski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:17What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Pietraszko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-8 in 21
Pietraszko
Correct
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pietraszko 1599 vs Kwodawski 1325
Pietraszko
Correct
both rated, 274 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pietraszko 80% vs Kwodawski 20%
Pietraszko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pietraszko 60% vs Kwodawski 20%
Pietraszko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pietraszko +2 · Kwodawski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Pietraszko) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwodawski form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPietraszko 1.36 / Kwodawski 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Pietraszko)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13134790
Pietraszko1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 118 of 179
Up 2–0, closes it93% 51 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it81% 83 of 102
Kwodawski3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 41 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePietraszko6wins
AwayKwodawski4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPietraszko leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePietraszko100%6 of 6
AwayKwodawski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pietraszko6Kwodawski3n = 9Pietraszko took 6 of 9
S2Pietraszko7Kwodawski2n = 9Pietraszko took 7 of 9
S3Pietraszko5Kwodawski4n = 9Pietraszko took 5 of 9
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPietraszkoKwodawskiP − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match30.327.6+2.7per matchSweeps52+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPietraszkoKwodawskiBasisWin rate · lifetime427 / 849 vs 192 / 45750.3%42%427 / 849 vs 192 / 457Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PietraszkoPietraszko 1.36/Kwodawski 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72%
Pietraszko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pietraszko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 15 · 16:55L. Pietraszko331111113B. Kwodawski207670
LApr 27 · 18:30L. Pietraszko3510111041B. Kwodawski4312812113
WApr 27 · 10:10L. Pietraszko4111118113B. Kwodawski36991171
WNov 17 · 14:05L. Pietraszko331111113B. Kwodawski259970
WNov 10 · 18:20L. Pietraszko331111113B. Kwodawski187650
WNov 10 · 10:00L. Pietraszko331111113B. Kwodawski227780
WOct 27 · 12:25L. Pietraszko331111113B. Kwodawski182790
LSep 29 · 10:35L. Pietraszko188550B. Kwodawski331111113
LSep 9 · 12:40L. Pietraszko143560B. Kwodawski331111113
L. Pietraszko10
WSep 15 · 21:25L. Pietraszko1.801111123D. Solilo1.9196100WSep 15 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.91741111122L. Pietraszko1.80111189143LSep 15 · 19:15L. Pietraszko1.676980A. Linek2.101111113WSep 15 · 18:05J. Witkowski1.91117671L. Pietraszko1.8061111113WSep 15 · 16:55B. Kwodawski2.757670L. Pietraszko1.401111113WSep 15 · 15:25J. Lamperski2.636990L. Pietraszko1.441111113WSep 14 · 24:35A. Wos2.1010111171L. Pietraszko1.6712613113LSep 13 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.361111113L. Pietraszko3.007890LSep 13 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.671111113L. Pietraszko2.106770LSep 13 · 21:25D. Jadam1.611111113L. Pietraszko2.204850
B. Kwodawski10
LSep 15 · 20:05B. Kwodawski1.911159101A. Linek1.8091111123WSep 15 · 18:30J. Lamperski1.9181361172B. Kwodawski1.801111112113LSep 15 · 17:40K. Kostyk1.5071111113B. Kwodawski2.50119891LSep 15 · 16:55B. Kwodawski2.757670L. Pietraszko1.401111113LSep 15 · 15:45B. Kwodawski3.259820J. Witkowski1.331111113LSep 5 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski2.40128612113B. Kwodawski1.501011111082LSep 5 · 18:55B. Sulkowski1.5311119113B. Kwodawski2.30671161WSep 5 · 18:10B. Kwodawski3.055111011113A. Lilien1.3111812872LSep 5 · 16:35B. Kwodawski1.639550K. Kufel2.151111113LSep 5 · 15:50J. Michalczyk1.78311812113B. Kwodawski1.93116111042
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