TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8116111171517––
Bartosz Sulkowski
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:30 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Bartosz Sulkowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 15-17
Point 86 set 4, 15-17 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 54.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 41–29 Bartosz Sulkowski Bartosz Sulkowski has won 29 of their 70 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:30What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kolek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-29 in 70
Kolek
Wrong
gap of 12 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1643 vs Sulkowski 1567
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 60% vs Sulkowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 50% vs Sulkowski 70%
Sulkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +1 · Sulkowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.40 / Sulkowski 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Kolek)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13160070
Kolek1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 255 of 420
Up 2–0, closes it94% 87 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it81% 190 of 236
Sulkowski2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 159 of 482
Down 0–1, comes back17% 47 of 283
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek7wins
AwaySulkowski3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek71.4%5 of 7
AwaySulkowski33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek7Sulkowski3n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S2Kolek2Sulkowski8n = 10Sulkowski took 8 of 10
S3Kolek7Sulkowski3n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S4Kolek7Sulkowski3n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S5Kolek3Sulkowski2n = 5Kolek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekSulkowskiK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.240.7+3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime718 / 1430 vs 572 / 128650.2%44.5%718 / 1430 vs 572 / 1286Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.40/Sulkowski 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 20:30M. Kolek378101181B. Sulkowski4011126113
WSep 17 · 24:10M. Kolek47116811113B. Sulkowski4261111592
WSep 16 · 15:25M. Kolek51991111113B. Sulkowski4711117992
LAug 13 · 12:40M. Kolek4514611682B. Sulkowski491211411113
WAug 12 · 09:25M. Kolek4281111123B. Sulkowski351168101
WAug 8 · 22:55M. Kolek3911611113B. Sulkowski34811691
WAug 8 · 20:30M. Kolek49111278113B. Sulkowski43410111172
LJul 12 · 11:45M. Kolek4611691192B. Sulkowski48611119113
WJul 10 · 10:35M. Kolek45111211113B. Sulkowski30314671
WJul 9 · 03:20M. Kolek4112611123B. Sulkowski3910118101
M. Kolek10
WSep 20 · 18:30A. Wos1.8397100M. Kolek1.831111123LSep 20 · 17:40L. Pietraszko1.8011118113M. Kolek1.91981181LSep 20 · 16:55M. Kolek1.4491111972K. Rudomina2.63119911113WSep 20 · 15:45M. Kolek1.611111113P. Blocho2.204830WSep 18 · 21:20P. Maruszak2.63671131M. Kolek1.4411114113LSep 18 · 20:30B. Sulkowski3.0011126113M. Kolek1.368101181WSep 18 · 18:30A. Daniel1.3391151152M. Kolek3.25117117113WSep 18 · 17:40M. Woskowicz3.2557110M. Kolek1.331111133LSep 18 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.7391111113M. Kolek2.00119551LSep 18 · 24:10M. Kolek1.5071311111K. Rudomina2.5011158133
B. Sulkowski10
LSep 20 · 19:15K. Rudomina1.801111113B. Sulkowski1.915850WSep 20 · 17:20A. Wos1.507850B. Sulkowski2.501111113LSep 20 · 16:30P. Blocho1.5071513123B. Sulkowski2.50111311101WSep 20 · 15:00L. Pietraszko1.675101151B. Sulkowski2.1011127113WSep 19 · 23:20M. Woskowicz1.73611761B. Sulkowski2.0011411113WSep 19 · 22:35A. Pilch2.20119841B. Sulkowski1.6161111113WSep 19 · 22:10B. Sulkowski1.8311115113A. Mugowski1.83781161LSep 19 · 21:00P. Maruszak1.8311133113B. Sulkowski1.838111181WSep 19 · 20:30B. Sulkowski3.251111311113R. Chrzescian1.3376111372WSep 18 · 20:30B. Sulkowski3.0011126113M. Kolek1.368101181
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek
Sep 20 · 21:25M. Kolek1.44K. Rudomina2.63—Sep 20 · 22:10M. Kolek1.83L. Pietraszko1.83—Sep 20 · 22:55M. Kolek1.40B. Sulkowski2.75—Sep 21 · 24:35M. Kolek1.50P. Blocho2.50—Sep 21 · 15:25M. Kolek—J. Mitas——Sep 21 · 16:05M. Kolek—K. Kostyk——Sep 21 · 17:20M. Kolek—M. Minda——Sep 21 · 18:30M. Kolek—J. Chmielowski——Sep 21 · 19:40M. Kolek—P. Blocho——Sep 21 · 21:00M. Kolek—K. Kostyk——
B. Sulkowski
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