TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111210711911––
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 79 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 10–12 Jakub Chmielowski Maciej Kolek has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:54What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-12 in 22
Chmielowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1632 vs Chmielowski 1610
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 60% vs Chmielowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 60% vs Chmielowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -2 · Chmielowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.00 / Chmielowski 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chmielowski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13165452
Kolek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 179 of 449
Down 0–1, comes back22% 57 of 263
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 120
Chmielowski1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 117 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it72% 94 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek3wins
AwayChmielowski7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChmielowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek0%0 of 4
AwayChmielowski50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek4Chmielowski6n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10
S2Kolek5Chmielowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolek5Chmielowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolek4Chmielowski6n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10
S5Kolek1Chmielowski3n = 4Chmielowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekChmielowskiK − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.244.3−3.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime723 / 1438 vs 351 / 72150.3%48.7%723 / 1438 vs 351 / 721Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiKolek 2.00/Chmielowski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 24:10M. Kolek4481111143J. Chmielowski371168121
LSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek5111814992J. Chmielowski516111211113
LAug 23 · 23:45M. Kolek361187101J. Chmielowski4281111123
WAug 23 · 16:05M. Kolek4041111143J. Chmielowski401189121
WAug 22 · 23:45M. Kolek549131011113J. Chmielowski50111112792
LAug 10 · 21:25M. Kolek32981141J. Chmielowski4011117113
LJul 8 · 13:25M. Kolek49711111192J. Chmielowski47116613113
LJun 26 · 12:10M. Kolek351211391J. Chmielowski4514911113
LJun 25 · 08:05M. Kolek4511841572J. Chmielowski526111113113
LJun 25 · 05:35M. Kolek26114921J. Chmielowski3961111113
M. Kolek10
WSep 21 · 19:40M. Kolek1.5391211113P. Blocho2.381110441LSep 21 · 17:20M. Kolek1.805690M. Minda1.911111113LSep 21 · 16:05K. Kostyk2.6311111123M. Kolek1.447118101WSep 21 · 15:25M. Kolek2.0011114113J. Mitas1.73951161WSep 21 · 24:35P. Blocho2.5091191182M. Kolek1.50118119113WSep 20 · 22:55B. Sulkowski2.755970M. Kolek1.401111113WSep 20 · 22:10L. Pietraszko1.80135561M. Kolek1.91111111113WSep 20 · 21:25K. Rudomina2.5061141192M. Kolek1.50116116113LSep 20 · 20:05M. Kolek1.408611151B. Sulkowski2.7511117173WSep 20 · 18:30A. Wos1.8397100M. Kolek1.831111123
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 21 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.63114591J. Chmielowski1.4451111113WSep 21 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.80411116113J. Mitas1.9111541162LSep 21 · 15:45J. Chmielowski1.44991181P. Blocho2.6311115113LSep 11 · 24:10J. Chmielowski1.831168121M. Kolek1.8381111143WSep 10 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.911111107113M. Olbrycht1.8099121152WSep 10 · 21:50J. Chmielowski1.801211113K. Kapik1.9110760LSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.671161171J. Mitas2.1041113113LSep 10 · 20:30M. Olbrycht1.8081312123J. Chmielowski1.91111110101LSep 10 · 19:15J. Chmielowski1.9168111192K. Staszczyk1.80111139113WSep 10 · 18:05K. Kapik1.8311411312J. Chmielowski1.83811711113
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek
J. Chmielowski
Sep 21 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.80J. Mitas1.91—Sep 21 · 22:10J. Chmielowski1.36K. Kostyk2.85—Sep 21 · 22:55J. Chmielowski1.83M. Kolek1.83—Sep 22 · 24:35J. Chmielowski1.80K. Staszczyk1.91—Sep 22 · 15:45J. Chmielowski—P. Blocho——Sep 22 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 22 · 17:40J. Chmielowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 22 · 18:30J. Chmielowski—M. Minda——Sep 22 · 20:05J. Chmielowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 22 · 21:25J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——
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