TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411115114611116
Jacek Mitas
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:19 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Jacek Mitas below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 80 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 56.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 3–1 Jacek Mitas Jacek Mitas has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:19What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Chmielowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1592 vs Mitas 1569
Chmielowski
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 40% vs Mitas 20%
Chmielowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 40% vs Mitas 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski -2 · Mitas -3
Mitas
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitas form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 1.80 / Mitas 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmielowski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13168371
Chmielowski1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 117 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it72% 94 of 130
Mitas1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 44 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeChmielowski3wins
AwayMitas1wins
Chmielowski leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmielowski75%3 of 4
AwayMitasn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski4Mitas0n = 4Chmielowski took 4 of 4
S2Chmielowski3Mitas1n = 4Chmielowski took 3 of 4
S3Chmielowski1Mitas3n = 4Mitas took 3 of 4
S4Chmielowski2Mitas1n = 3Chmielowski took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricChmielowskiMitasC − MBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match37.533.8+3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiMitasBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 721 vs 109 / 24248.7%45%351 / 721 vs 109 / 242Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.636.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiChmielowski 1.80/Mitas 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski351161171J. Mitas3941113113
WSep 10 · 16:55J. Chmielowski341112113J. Mitas2781090
WJun 26 · 09:45J. Chmielowski44111111113J. Mitas37781391
WJun 25 · 10:30J. Chmielowski3711114113J. Mitas32851181
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 21 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.63114591J. Chmielowski1.4451111113LSep 21 · 15:45J. Chmielowski1.44991181P. Blocho2.6311115113LSep 11 · 24:10J. Chmielowski1.831168121M. Kolek1.8381111143WSep 10 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.911111107113M. Olbrycht1.8099121152WSep 10 · 21:50J. Chmielowski1.801211113K. Kapik1.9110760LSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.671161171J. Mitas2.1041113113LSep 10 · 20:30M. Olbrycht1.8081312123J. Chmielowski1.91111110101LSep 10 · 19:15J. Chmielowski1.9168111192K. Staszczyk1.80111139113WSep 10 · 18:05K. Kapik1.8311411312J. Chmielowski1.83811711113WSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2.1081090J. Chmielowski1.671112113
J. Mitas10
LSep 21 · 15:25M. Kolek2.0011114113J. Mitas1.73951161LSep 12 · 01:10P. Jendrzejewski1.5011116113J. Mitas2.50771151LSep 12 · 24:45J. Mitas2.00116661K. Staszczyk1.7331111113WSep 11 · 23:55J. Mitas1.6711118133M. Marchlewski2.106911111LSep 11 · 22:05J. Mitas2.2512148732T. Filbrandt1.5710121111113LSep 11 · 21:00K. Strowski1.33116811113J. Mitas3.2571111552WSep 11 · 20:05P. Jendrzejewski1.44711121162J. Mitas2.63116143113WSep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas2.001112113T. Filbrandt1.7391060WSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.671161171J. Mitas2.1041113113LSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2.1081090J. Chmielowski1.671112113
Upcoming Matches
J. Chmielowski
Sep 21 · 18:30J. Chmielowski1.73M. Kolek2.00—Sep 21 · 20:05J. Chmielowski1.44M. Minda2.63—Sep 21 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.80J. Mitas1.91—Sep 21 · 22:10J. Chmielowski1.36K. Kostyk2.85—Sep 21 · 22:55J. Chmielowski1.73M. Kolek2.00—Sep 22 · 24:35J. Chmielowski1.80K. Staszczyk1.91—Sep 22 · 15:45J. Chmielowski—P. Blocho——Sep 22 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 22 · 17:40J. Chmielowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 22 · 18:30J. Chmielowski—M. Minda——
J. Mitas
Sep 21 · 18:05J. Mitas1.57P. Blocho2.25—Sep 21 · 19:15J. Mitas1.50M. Minda2.50—Sep 21 · 20:30J. Mitas1.61K. Kostyk2.20—Sep 21 · 21:25J. Mitas1.91J. Chmielowski1.80—Sep 21 · 21:50J. Mitas2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 21 · 23:20J. Mitas1.36K. Kostyk2.80—Sep 22 · 24:10J. Mitas1.73M. Kolek2.00—Sep 22 · 15:25J. Mitas—M. Minda——Sep 22 · 16:55J. Mitas—J. Chmielowski——Sep 22 · 18:05J. Mitas—P. Blocho——
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