TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Home
2.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6116111012––––
Kamil Kostyk
Away
1.55
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:34 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
6116111012––––
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 5–3 Kamil Kostyk Kamil Kostyk has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Mugowski beat Kostyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:34What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Kostyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Mugowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1419 vs Kostyk 1401
Mugowski
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 80% vs Kostyk 40%
Mugowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 80% vs Kostyk 50%
Mugowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski +1 · Kostyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kostyk) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 2.30 / Kostyk 1.55
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kostyk)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13161707
Mugowski2.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 177 of 430
Down 0–1, comes back26% 68 of 259
Down 0–2, comes back15% 21 of 141
Kostyk1.55
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 49 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMugowski5wins
AwayKostyk3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderMugowski leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowski100%4 of 4
AwayKostyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski4Kostyk4n = 8split evenly
S2Mugowski6Kostyk2n = 8Mugowski took 6 of 8
S3Mugowski3Kostyk5n = 8Kostyk took 5 of 8
S4Mugowski1Kostyk3n = 4Kostyk took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricMugowskiKostykM − KBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match35.536.8−1.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime921 / 2001 vs 230 / 46346%49.7%921 / 2001 vs 230 / 463Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KostykMugowski 2.30/Kostyk 1.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Kostyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kostyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 20 · 20:30A. Mugowski50111158153K. Kostyk50961111132
WJan 18 · 15:25A. Mugowski4291111113K. Kostyk36119791
LNov 23 · 12:30A. Mugowski29211791K. Kostyk4211911113
WNov 23 · 06:45A. Mugowski351113113K. Kostyk2881190
LOct 18 · 19:05A. Mugowski2471070K. Kostyk341112113
WSep 26 · 11:25A. Mugowski331111113K. Kostyk259880
LSep 26 · 03:00A. Mugowski26106100K. Kostyk351211123
WSep 24 · 15:25A. Mugowski451111210113K. Kostyk4458111282
A. Mugowski10
WSep 20 · 21:55A. Mugowski1.9011911113P. Krukar1.76311381LSep 20 · 21:30A. Mugowski1.70118111082D. Kotwica2.00511912113WSep 20 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.52961111132A. Mugowski2.37111158153WSep 20 · 19:20A. Mugowski1.5411511113W. Gluszek2.25911781WSep 20 · 18:10A. Eliasz2.5091141192A. Mugowski1.44118115113WSep 20 · 16:55P. Krukar2.1013841192A. Mugowski1.601111116113WSep 20 · 15:25D. Kotwica2.10115413112A. Mugowski1.659111111133WSep 20 · 24:35A. Pilch2.0012890A. Mugowski1.731411113WSep 19 · 22:55P. Maruszak1.73871141A. Mugowski2.0011117113LSep 19 · 22:10B. Sulkowski1.8311115113A. Mugowski1.83781161
K. Kostyk10
WSep 20 · 22:35P. Krukar2.2061120K. Kostyk1.571111143WSep 20 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.27711611113D. Kotwica3.0911511392LSep 20 · 21:05W. Gluszek3.25811118113K. Kostyk1.2711651182LSep 20 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.52961111132A. Mugowski2.37111158153LSep 20 · 18:55K. Kostyk1.3281141192A. Eliasz3.05118119113WSep 20 · 17:45K. Kostyk1.6081111113P. Krukar2.20118821LSep 20 · 16:15K. Kostyk1.29971171D. Kotwica3.3011117113WSep 20 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.231191111113W. Gluszek3.1591161362LSep 15 · 23:20L. Pietraszko1.831116113K. Kostyk1.8361440WSep 15 · 22:35B. Kwodawski2.50815111172K. Kostyk1.50111736113
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