TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151187111210––
Michal Minda
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Michal Minda below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 76 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 67.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 4–2 Michal Minda Michal Minda has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:38What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Chmielowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1622 vs Minda 1448
Chmielowski
Correct
both rated, 175 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 60% vs Minda 40%
Chmielowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 50% vs Minda 30%
Chmielowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski +3 · Minda -1
Chmielowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 1.44 / Minda 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Chmielowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13168724
Chmielowski1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 117 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it72% 94 of 130
Minda2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 133 of 334
Down 0–1, comes back25% 51 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeChmielowski4wins
AwayMinda2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderChmielowski leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmielowski75%3 of 4
AwayMindan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski4Minda2n = 6Chmielowski took 4 of 6
S2Chmielowski4Minda2n = 6Chmielowski took 4 of 6
S3Chmielowski3Minda3n = 6split evenly
S4Chmielowski3Minda0n = 3Chmielowski took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricChmielowskiMindaC − MBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match37.730.8+6.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiMindaBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 722 vs 1018 / 198848.8%51.2%352 / 722 vs 1018 / 1988Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiChmielowski 1.44/Minda 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJul 20 · 08:30J. Chmielowski2681080M. Minda341112113
LJul 20 · 06:00J. Chmielowski4111771152M. Minda47511119113
WJul 9 · 14:15J. Chmielowski331111113M. Minda206590
WAug 17 · 16:40J. Chmielowski4211119113M. Minda28561161
WJul 4 · 13:55J. Chmielowski51171211113M. Minda351910151
WJul 4 · 06:55J. Chmielowski331111113M. Minda215970
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 21 · 18:30M. Kolek2.00812791J. Chmielowski1.73111011113WSep 21 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.63114591J. Chmielowski1.4451111113WSep 21 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.80411116113J. Mitas1.9111541162LSep 21 · 15:45J. Chmielowski1.44991181P. Blocho2.6311115113LSep 11 · 24:10J. Chmielowski1.831168121M. Kolek1.8381111143WSep 10 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.911111107113M. Olbrycht1.8099121152WSep 10 · 21:50J. Chmielowski1.801211113K. Kapik1.9110760LSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.671161171J. Mitas2.1041113113LSep 10 · 20:30M. Olbrycht1.8081312123J. Chmielowski1.91111110101LSep 10 · 19:15J. Chmielowski1.9168111192K. Staszczyk1.80111139113
M. Minda10
LSep 21 · 19:15J. Mitas1.501111113M. Minda2.504850WSep 21 · 17:20M. Kolek1.805690M. Minda1.911111113LSep 21 · 16:30P. Blocho1.6712116113M. Minda2.101041171WSep 21 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.8071111842M. Minda1.91117811113LSep 20 · 14:10G. Kesik1.83117811113M. Minda1.8351111292LSep 20 · 13:20R. Stapor1.83151111113M. Minda1.83178841LSep 20 · 11:15M. Woskowicz2.208101111113M. Minda1.6111128912LSep 20 · 10:25R. Chrzescian1.5311613123M. Minda2.3891111101LSep 20 · 09:00A. Wos1.6113411113M. Minda2.201111431WSep 20 · 08:05M. Minda1.73971115113D. Solilo2.00111161382
Upcoming Matches
J. Chmielowski
Sep 21 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.73J. Mitas2.00—Sep 21 · 22:10J. Chmielowski1.36K. Kostyk2.85—Sep 21 · 22:55J. Chmielowski1.83M. Kolek1.83—Sep 22 · 24:35J. Chmielowski1.80K. Staszczyk1.91—Sep 22 · 15:45J. Chmielowski—P. Blocho——Sep 22 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 22 · 17:40J. Chmielowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 22 · 18:30J. Chmielowski—M. Minda——Sep 22 · 20:05J. Chmielowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 22 · 21:25J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——
M. Minda
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