TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1517118118114––
Michal Minda
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Minda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRafal Stapor above · Michal Minda below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 85 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Michal Minda at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Stapor 15–17 Michal Minda Rafal Stapor has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Minda beat Stapor 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:31What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Minda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-17 in 32
Minda
Wrong
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1426 vs Minda 1454
Minda
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 0% vs Minda 40%
Minda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 30% vs Minda 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -6 · Minda -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Minda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Minda form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.83 / Minda 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Minda)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13159865
Stapor1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Minda1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor3wins
AwayMinda7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMinda leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaporn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMinda62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor2Minda8n = 10Minda took 8 of 10
S2Stapor4Minda6n = 10Minda took 6 of 10
S3Stapor3Minda7n = 10Minda took 7 of 10
S4Stapor5Minda3n = 8Stapor took 5 of 8
S5Stapor2Minda2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporMindaS − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.340.9−4.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporMindaBasisWin rate · lifetime679 / 1206 vs 1021 / 199156.3%51.3%679 / 1206 vs 1021 / 1991Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MindaStapor 1.83/Minda 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Minda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 06:30R. Stapor29116931M. Minda3961111113
LSep 17 · 10:35R. Stapor49713101272M. Minda5511111210113
WSep 9 · 03:00R. Stapor52991112113M. Minda46111171072
LAug 26 · 12:15R. Stapor27291151M. Minda4111118113
LAug 21 · 11:00R. Stapor34811691M. Minda3811511113
LAug 20 · 09:00R. Stapor202990M. Minda331111113
WAug 13 · 05:30R. Stapor46412811113M. Minda46111011592
LAug 12 · 04:50R. Stapor43111161142M. Minda45313117113
LAug 8 · 09:00R. Stapor2010460M. Minda341211113
WAug 7 · 04:50R. Stapor4391112113M. Minda321181031
R. Stapor10
LSep 20 · 12:05R. Chrzescian1.3361111113R. Stapor3.25118481LSep 20 · 10:50G. Kesik2.001111113R. Stapor1.733980LSep 20 · 09:20M. Woskowicz2.20511617113R. Stapor1.61116111522LSep 20 · 07:45R. Stapor3.509680G. Poliniewicz1.281111113LSep 20 · 06:30R. Stapor1.91116931M. Minda1.8061111113LSep 20 · 05:15R. Stapor2.205750D. Solilo1.611111113WSep 20 · 04:10G. Kesik1.918890R. Stapor1.801111113LSep 20 · 03:25R. Stapor2.50811351R. Chrzescian1.5011911113WSep 18 · 08:10R. Stapor2.60117112113J. Zochniak1.4491181152WSep 18 · 06:30B. Wisniewski2.85491151R. Stapor1.3611119113
M. Minda10
LSep 20 · 14:10G. Kesik1.83117811113M. Minda1.8351111292LSep 20 · 11:15M. Woskowicz2.208101111113M. Minda1.6111128912LSep 20 · 10:25R. Chrzescian1.5311613123M. Minda2.3891111101LSep 20 · 09:00A. Wos1.6113411113M. Minda2.201111431WSep 20 · 08:05M. Minda1.73971115113D. Solilo2.00111161382WSep 20 · 06:30R. Stapor1.91116931M. Minda1.8061111113LSep 20 · 05:40G. Kesik1.83711811113M. Minda1.8311511552LSep 20 · 04:55M. Minda2.5078100R. Chrzescian1.501111123LSep 20 · 03:45M. Minda3.0051040G. Poliniewicz1.361112113WSep 19 · 14:15M. Minda1.90571113113P. Blocho1.80111181182
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