TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Gracjan Kesik
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811911––––
Rafal Stapor
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGracjan Kesik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGracjan Kesik above · Rafal Stapor below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Gracjan Kesik at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Gracjan Kesik 2–6 Rafal Stapor Gracjan Kesik has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:05What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Stapor
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kesik 1509 vs Stapor 1448
Kesik
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kesik 40% vs Stapor 60%
Stapor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kesik 40% vs Stapor 60%
Stapor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kesik -1 · Stapor -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kesik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kesik form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKesik 1.91 / Stapor 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kesik)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13159199
Kesik1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 57 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back35% 23 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 31
Stapor1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 389 of 622
Up 2–0, closes it96% 194 of 203
Up 1–0, closes it81% 295 of 366
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKesik2wins
AwayStapor6wins
2 of 8 to a deciderStapor leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKesikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStapor100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kesik2Stapor6n = 8Stapor took 6 of 8
S2Kesik2Stapor6n = 8Stapor took 6 of 8
S3Kesik3Stapor5n = 8Stapor took 5 of 8
S4Kesik2Stapor2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricKesikStaporK − SBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match34.036.9−2.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKesikStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime324 / 602 vs 678 / 119953.8%56.6%324 / 602 vs 678 / 1199Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KesikKesik 1.91/Stapor 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kesik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 12 · 15:50G. Kesik371161191R. Stapor4013115113
LJul 19 · 16:55G. Kesik391011991R. Stapor4112711113
LJul 3 · 13:30G. Kesik44741211102R. Stapor491111105123
LJun 7 · 05:00G. Kesik218490R. Stapor331111113
WJun 1 · 07:05G. Kesik341211113R. Stapor2610970
LJun 1 · 04:35G. Kesik2577110R. Stapor351111133
WApr 18 · 11:45G. Kesik49116911123R. Stapor38611110102
LMar 13 · 21:15G. Kesik239860R. Stapor331111113
G. Kesik10
LSep 20 · 03:00G. Kesik2.1095100D. Solilo1.671111123WSep 13 · 20:05L. Pietraszko1.53631291G. Kesik2.38111110113LSep 13 · 19:15D. Jadam1.6171111113G. Kesik2.20115691LSep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek1.501011118153G. Kesik2.50124211132WSep 13 · 16:30K. Staszczyk1.53119113122G. Kesik2.38711411143LSep 13 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.401113811113G. Kesik2.7571511252LSep 13 · 14:15G. Kesik1.517101161M. Piecowski2.2911127113WSep 13 · 12:35P. Maruszak1.9591170G. Kesik1.741113113WSep 13 · 11:45T. Piotrowski2.1010260G. Kesik1.651211113LSep 13 · 10:55G. Kesik2.65631121M. Kolek1.4011118113
R. Stapor10
LSep 20 · 03:25R. Stapor2.50811351R. Chrzescian1.5011911113WSep 18 · 08:10R. Stapor2.60117112113J. Zochniak1.4491181152WSep 18 · 06:30B. Wisniewski2.85491151R. Stapor1.3611119113LSep 18 · 05:40J. Przewlocki2.50118211113R. Stapor1.4681111842WSep 18 · 04:55R. Stapor1.831111113B. Mleczko1.876790WSep 18 · 03:50R. Stapor1.601111113W. Gronowski2.103970WSep 17 · 13:55W. Suchecki2.8516711101R. Stapor1.3418118123WSep 17 · 13:05F. Krcil1.917710R. Stapor1.741111113LSep 17 · 12:15R. Stapor2.1511116632D. Kosmal1.64981111113LSep 17 · 10:35R. Stapor2.20713101272M. Minda1.6011111210113
Upcoming Matches
G. Kesik
Sep 20 · 05:40G. Kesik1.83M. Minda1.83—Sep 20 · 06:55G. Kesik3.00G. Poliniewicz1.36—Sep 20 · 08:30G. Kesik2.20R. Chrzescian1.61—Sep 20 · 09:40G. Kesik1.91R. Chrzescian1.80—Sep 20 · 10:50G. Kesik2.00R. Stapor1.73—Sep 20 · 11:40G. Kesik2.20A. Wos1.61—Sep 20 · 12:30G. Kesik1.67M. Woskowicz2.10—Sep 20 · 14:10G. Kesik1.83M. Minda1.83—
R. Stapor
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