TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116611911311––
Michal Minda
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Minda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Stapor above · Michal Minda below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 68 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Michal Minda at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Stapor 15–17 Michal Minda Rafal Stapor has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:48What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Minda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-17 in 32
Minda
Correct
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1447 vs Minda 1473
Minda
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 60% vs Minda 40%
Stapor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 70% vs Minda 40%
Stapor
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -1 · Minda -3
Minda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Minda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Minda form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.91 / Minda 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Minda)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13159692
Stapor1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 102 of 283
Down 0–1, comes back17% 31 of 178
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 103
Minda1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 272 of 434
Up 2–0, closes it97% 115 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it81% 207 of 255
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor3wins
AwayMinda7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMinda leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaporn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMinda62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor2Minda8n = 10Minda took 8 of 10
S2Stapor4Minda6n = 10Minda took 6 of 10
S3Stapor3Minda7n = 10Minda took 7 of 10
S4Stapor5Minda3n = 8Stapor took 5 of 8
S5Stapor2Minda2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporMindaS − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.340.9−4.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporMindaBasisWin rate · lifetime679 / 1202 vs 1020 / 198756.5%51.3%679 / 1202 vs 1020 / 1987Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MindaStapor 1.91/Minda 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Minda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Minda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 06:30R. Stapor29116931M. Minda3961111113
LSep 17 · 10:35R. Stapor49713101272M. Minda5511111210113
WSep 9 · 03:00R. Stapor52991112113M. Minda46111171072
LAug 26 · 12:15R. Stapor27291151M. Minda4111118113
LAug 21 · 11:00R. Stapor34811691M. Minda3811511113
LAug 20 · 09:00R. Stapor202990M. Minda331111113
WAug 13 · 05:30R. Stapor46412811113M. Minda46111011592
LAug 12 · 04:50R. Stapor43111161142M. Minda45313117113
LAug 8 · 09:00R. Stapor2010460M. Minda341211113
WAug 7 · 04:50R. Stapor4391112113M. Minda321181031
R. Stapor10
LSep 20 · 05:15R. Stapor2.205750D. Solilo1.611111113WSep 20 · 04:10G. Kesik1.918890R. Stapor1.801111113LSep 20 · 03:25R. Stapor2.50811351R. Chrzescian1.5011911113WSep 18 · 08:10R. Stapor2.60117112113J. Zochniak1.4491181152WSep 18 · 06:30B. Wisniewski2.85491151R. Stapor1.3611119113LSep 18 · 05:40J. Przewlocki2.50118211113R. Stapor1.4681111842WSep 18 · 04:55R. Stapor1.831111113B. Mleczko1.876790WSep 18 · 03:50R. Stapor1.601111113W. Gronowski2.103970WSep 17 · 13:55W. Suchecki2.8516711101R. Stapor1.3418118123WSep 17 · 13:05F. Krcil1.917710R. Stapor1.741111113
M. Minda10
LSep 20 · 05:40G. Kesik1.83711811113M. Minda1.8311511552LSep 20 · 04:55M. Minda2.5078100R. Chrzescian1.501111123LSep 20 · 03:45M. Minda3.0051040G. Poliniewicz1.361112113WSep 19 · 14:15M. Minda1.90571113113P. Blocho1.80111181182WSep 19 · 12:35B. Mleczko1.9512971162M. Minda1.671011118113LSep 19 · 11:45A. Wos1.651111143M. Minda1.9877120LSep 19 · 10:55M. Minda1.5041161592W. Gronowski2.351171113113WSep 19 · 09:45M. Minda2.751111113R. Chrzescian1.409880LSep 19 · 08:30M. Minda1.7812631152B. Mleczko1.911011117113WSep 19 · 06:50M. Minda1.57111110143I. Dabrowski2.258712121
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