TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611811––––
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:32 and never touched — 77.2% is still 77.2%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Poliniewicz to win
77.2%
77.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Stapor above · Grzegorz Poliniewicz below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Grzegorz Poliniewicz at 77.2%
56 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Stapor 1–10 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Rafal Stapor has won 1 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:32What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Poliniewicz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-10 in 11
Poliniewicz
Correct
gap of 9 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1440 vs Poliniewicz 1673
Poliniewicz
Correct
both rated, 233 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 40% vs Poliniewicz 60%
Poliniewicz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 60% vs Poliniewicz 40%
Stapor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -2 · Poliniewicz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Poliniewicz) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 3.50 / Poliniewicz 1.28
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Poliniewicz)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13159732
Stapor3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 102 of 283
Down 0–1, comes back17% 31 of 178
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 103
Poliniewicz1.28
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 315 of 445
Up 2–0, closes it95% 140 of 148
Up 1–0, closes it84% 230 of 275
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor0wins
AwayPoliniewicz10wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPoliniewicz leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaporn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayPoliniewicz100%10 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor0Poliniewicz10n = 10Poliniewicz took 10 of 10
S2Stapor3Poliniewicz7n = 10Poliniewicz took 7 of 10
S3Stapor4Poliniewicz6n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S4Stapor1Poliniewicz4n = 5Poliniewicz took 4 of 5
S5Stapor0Poliniewicz3n = 3Poliniewicz took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporPoliniewiczS − PBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match31.840.2−8.4per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime679 / 1203 vs 1231 / 210156.4%58.6%679 / 1203 vs 1231 / 2101Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PoliniewiczStapor 3.50/Poliniewicz 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Poliniewicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Poliniewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 07:45R. Stapor239680G. Poliniewicz331111113
LAug 20 · 07:40R. Stapor27561151G. Poliniewicz4111118113
LAug 13 · 04:00R. Stapor2661190G. Poliniewicz351113113
LAug 9 · 05:15R. Stapor43611115102G. Poliniewicz48119511123
LJul 29 · 09:20R. Stapor3761011101G. Poliniewicz4311128123
LJul 8 · 08:05R. Stapor2010730G. Poliniewicz341211113
LJul 8 · 05:35R. Stapor229580G. Poliniewicz331111113
LJun 22 · 08:30R. Stapor4581111872G. Poliniewicz47118611113
LJun 22 · 06:00R. Stapor5291191582G. Poliniewicz551191113113
LJun 10 · 03:00R. Stapor239770G. Poliniewicz331111113
R. Stapor10
LSep 20 · 06:30R. Stapor1.91116931M. Minda1.8061111113LSep 20 · 05:15R. Stapor2.205750D. Solilo1.611111113WSep 20 · 04:10G. Kesik1.918890R. Stapor1.801111113LSep 20 · 03:25R. Stapor2.50811351R. Chrzescian1.5011911113WSep 18 · 08:10R. Stapor2.60117112113J. Zochniak1.4491181152WSep 18 · 06:30B. Wisniewski2.85491151R. Stapor1.3611119113LSep 18 · 05:40J. Przewlocki2.50118211113R. Stapor1.4681111842WSep 18 · 04:55R. Stapor1.831111113B. Mleczko1.876790WSep 18 · 03:50R. Stapor1.601111113W. Gronowski2.103970WSep 17 · 13:55W. Suchecki2.8516711101R. Stapor1.3418118123
G. Poliniewicz10
WSep 20 · 06:55G. Kesik3.003710G. Poliniewicz1.361111113LSep 20 · 06:05G. Poliniewicz1.6781191182R. Chrzescian2.10118119113WSep 20 · 04:30G. Poliniewicz1.671111118113D. Solilo2.1071381172WSep 20 · 03:45M. Minda3.0051040G. Poliniewicz1.361112113LSep 19 · 14:35D. Kostal2.6311811133G. Poliniewicz1.448119111LSep 19 · 13:20G. Poliniewicz3.0081211552J. Stecyszyn1.361110711113LSep 19 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.221011811113G. Poliniewicz4.0012811532LSep 19 · 10:50D. Wederlich1.22115811113G. Poliniewicz4.0071111972WSep 19 · 09:20A. Daniel1.50561181G. Poliniewicz2.5011119113LSep 19 · 07:45G. Poliniewicz4.007101171M. Jadczyk1.2211129113
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