TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jacek Mitas vs Jakub Chmielowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Jacek Mitas
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118116311119––
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:15 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJacek Mitas above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 70 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 56.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Mitas 1–4 Jakub Chmielowski Jacek Mitas has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Chmielowski beat Mitas 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chmielowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Chmielowski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitas 1589 vs Chmielowski 1629
Chmielowski
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitas 60% vs Chmielowski 80%
Chmielowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitas 40% vs Chmielowski 60%
Chmielowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitas +3 · Chmielowski +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitas 2.00 / Chmielowski 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Chmielowski)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13168922
Mitas2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 44 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Chmielowski1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 117 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it72% 94 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMitas1wins
AwayChmielowski4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderChmielowski leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitasn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayChmielowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitas1Chmielowski4n = 5Chmielowski took 4 of 5
S2Mitas1Chmielowski4n = 5Chmielowski took 4 of 5
S3Mitas3Chmielowski2n = 5Mitas took 3 of 5
S4Mitas2Chmielowski2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMitasChmielowskiM − CBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match34.438.6−4.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitasChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 246 vs 351 / 72145.5%48.7%112 / 246 vs 351 / 721Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiMitas 2.00/Chmielowski 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mitas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 21 · 16:55J. Mitas3711541162J. Chmielowski43411116113
WSep 10 · 21:25J. Mitas3941113113J. Chmielowski351161171
LSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2781090J. Chmielowski341112113
LJun 26 · 09:45J. Mitas37781391J. Chmielowski44111111113
LJun 25 · 10:30J. Mitas32851181J. Chmielowski3711114113
J. Mitas10
WSep 21 · 21:50J. Mitas2.001112113K. Staszczyk1.7381050WSep 21 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.205370J. Mitas1.611111113WSep 21 · 19:15J. Mitas1.501111113M. Minda2.504850WSep 21 · 18:05P. Blocho2.2539100J. Mitas1.571111123LSep 21 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.80411116113J. Mitas1.9111541162LSep 21 · 15:25M. Kolek2.0011114113J. Mitas1.73951161LSep 12 · 01:10P. Jendrzejewski1.5011116113J. Mitas2.50771151LSep 12 · 24:45J. Mitas2.00116661K. Staszczyk1.7331111113WSep 11 · 23:55J. Mitas1.6711118133M. Marchlewski2.106911111LSep 11 · 22:05J. Mitas2.2512148732T. Filbrandt1.5710121111113
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 21 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.856880J. Chmielowski1.361111113WSep 21 · 20:05J. Chmielowski1.4411117123M. Minda2.635811101WSep 21 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.63114591J. Chmielowski1.4451111113WSep 21 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.80411116113J. Mitas1.9111541162LSep 21 · 15:45J. Chmielowski1.44991181P. Blocho2.6311115113LSep 11 · 24:10J. Chmielowski1.831168121M. Kolek1.8381111143WSep 10 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.911111107113M. Olbrycht1.8099121152WSep 10 · 21:50J. Chmielowski1.801211113K. Kapik1.9110760LSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.671161171J. Mitas2.1041113113LSep 10 · 20:30M. Olbrycht1.8081312123J. Chmielowski1.91111110101
Upcoming Matches
J. Mitas
Sep 21 · 23:20J. Mitas1.36K. Kostyk3.00—Sep 22 · 24:10J. Mitas1.73M. Kolek2.00—Sep 22 · 15:25J. Mitas—M. Minda——Sep 22 · 16:55J. Mitas—J. Chmielowski——Sep 22 · 18:05J. Mitas—P. Blocho——Sep 22 · 19:15J. Mitas—K. Rudomina——Sep 22 · 20:30J. Mitas—L. Pietraszko——Sep 22 · 21:25J. Mitas—J. Chmielowski——Sep 22 · 21:50J. Mitas—K. Staszczyk——Sep 22 · 23:20J. Mitas—L. Pietraszko——
J. Chmielowski
Sep 22 · 24:35J. Chmielowski1.80K. Staszczyk1.91—Sep 22 · 15:45J. Chmielowski—P. Blocho——Sep 22 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 22 · 17:40J. Chmielowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 22 · 18:30J. Chmielowski—M. Minda——Sep 22 · 20:05J. Chmielowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 22 · 21:25J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 22 · 22:10J. Chmielowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 22 · 22:55J. Chmielowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 23 · 24:35J. Chmielowski—K. Staszczyk——
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